The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, December 27, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DALLAS
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 165-112 SU and 162-107 ATS (60.2%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
12/27: CLEVELAND at Dallas
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DAL)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 34-28 SU and 34-27-1 ATS (55.7%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/27: HOUSTON vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+3 vs PHX)
12/27: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. New York
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs NYK)
* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 21-8 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
12/27: DALLAS vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3.5 vs CLE)
* Over the total was 95-60 (61.3%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+DaysRest.
12/27: OVER the total in DALLAS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230.5)
* Under the total was 33-28 (54.1%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was okaying a One Day Rest game.
12/27: UNDER the total in PHOENIX-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 226)
12/27: UNDER the total in NEW YORK-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 240)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN was 16-7 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
12/27: UNDER the total in MILWAUKEE-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 240.5)
* HOUSTON is 12-39 SU and 17-33 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
12/27: FADE HOUSTON vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs PHX)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 SU and 20-7 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/27: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. New York
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5. vs NYK)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 235-184 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-BKN (o/u at 240.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+6.2), 2. WASHINGTON +7 (+2.9), 3. PHILADELPHIA +2 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -5 (+2.0), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+4.4), 2. WASHINGTON +7 (+2.0), 3. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -5 (+1.0), 2. ORLANDO -2 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-OKC OVER 240 (+0.9), 2. TOR-WSH OVER 241 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-HOU UNDER 226 (-3.2), 2. CLE-DAL UNDER 230.5 (-1.3), 3. PHI-ORL UNDER 229 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+5.5), 2. WASHINGTON +7 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: