The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Tuesday, November 21, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PHOENIX
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-ORL, CLE-PHI, POR-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): IND-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in IND-ATL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 163-108 SU and 160-103 ATS (60.8%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/21: ATLANTA vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-3.5 vs IND)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 48-24 SU and 46-24-2 ATS (65.7%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
11/21: ATLANTA vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-3.5 vs IND)
* Over the total was 91-58 (61.1%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/21: Over the total in ATLANTA-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 251)
* Over the total was 44-28 (61.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/21: Over the total in ATLANTA-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 251)
* Over the total was 27-18 (60%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/21: OVER the total in ATLANTA-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 251)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-82 (58.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 152-103 (59.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in POR-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 178-178 SU and 149-197-10 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+1.5 at ORL), FADE UTAH (+7.5 at LAL), FADE PHOENIX (-13 vs POR)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 226-166 (57.7%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TOR-ORL (o/u at 215)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next fame, going 65-44 SU and 67-42 ATS (61.5%)
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+13 at PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (117-148 ATS, 44.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (174-154 ATS, 53%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND ATS (+13 at PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 138-175 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-74 SU and 36-52-3 ATS (40.9%).
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+13 at PHX)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -13 (+2.1), 2. PHILADELPHIA -8 (+2.0), 3. ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -13 (+2.4), 2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+1.4), 3. PHILADELPHIA -8 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-LAL OVER 237 (+5.4), 2. IND-ATL OVER 251 (+3.8), 3. CLE-PHI OVER 218.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-PHX UNDER 223.5 (-4.4), 2. TOR-ORL UNDER 215 (-0.1)