The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Tuesday, January 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, MINNESOTA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, ORLANDO, NEW YORK, TORONTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO ML, NEW YORK ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DET
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 107-78 SU but 76-107-1 ATS (41.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/9: FADE NEW YORK vs. Portland
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-12 vs POR)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 58-37 SU but 37-57-1 ATS (39.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/9: FADE NEW YORK vs. Portland
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-12 vs POR)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 17-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/9: Under the total in DALLAS-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 107-23 SU but just 49-79-2 ATS (38.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (-11 at DET), FADE NEW YORK (-12 vs POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 121-96 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-117 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SAC-DET (o/u at 240), PLAY OVER in POR-NYK (o/u at 227.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 206-209 SU and 177-228-10 ATS (43.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+12 at NYK)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 182-202 SU and 165-217-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+12 at NYK)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 198-192 SU, but 173-205-12 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+12 at NYK)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
4. NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 70-53 SU and 70-53 ATS (56.9)
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-11 at DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 75-14 SU but 35-52-3 ATS (40.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-12 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (134-158 ATS, 45.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (193-174 ATS, 52.6%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER DETROIT (+11 vs SAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +5 (+1.5), 2. TORONTO +5 (+1.0), 3. DETROIT +11 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -12 (+1.1), 2. DALLAS -9 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +9 (+1.1), 2. ORLANDO +5 (+1.0), 3. PORTLAND +12 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEM-DAL OVER 235 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-NYK UNDER 228.5 (-2.8), 2. MIN-ORL UNDER 217 (-1.9), 3. SAC-DET UNDER 240 (-0.9)