The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Thursday, December 21, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, NEW ORLEANS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO, MEMPHIS, PORTLAND
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and a R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, WASHINGTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: There was a supermajority figure that really stood out when analyzing the handle of bettors backing an underdog in a moneyline wager. This supermajority percentage was 75% or more, and this group went 10-2 for +11.35 units of profit. This is the highest R.O.I. system of the bunch by far, 94.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): IND-MEM
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 101-75 SU but 70-105 ATS (40%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/21: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA Clippers
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 42-35 SU but 28-49 ATS (36.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/21: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA Clippers
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 32-17 SU and 28-20-1 ATS (58.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/21: MINNESOTA vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs LAL)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 23-15 SU but 17-21 ATS (44.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/21: Fade DETROIT vs. Utah
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+1 vs UTA)
12/21: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA Clippers
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 31-26 SU and 31-25-1 ATS (55.4%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/21: CHICAGO vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-5.5 vs SAS)
12/21: CLEVELAND vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NOP)
* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
12/21: MILWAUKEE vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-7 vs ORL)
* Under the total was 71-40 (64%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/21: Under the total in CLEVELAND-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 67-39 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
12/21: Over the total in MINNESOTA-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
* Over the total was 58-41 (58.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/21: Over the total in MINNESOTA-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
* Under the total was 31-25 (55.4%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/21: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228.5)
12/21: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 32-22 (59.3%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/21: Over the total in MEMPHIS-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 247.5)
12/21: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236)
* Over the total was 2013 (60,6%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
12/21: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236)
* Over the total was 21-12 (63.6%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/21: Over the total in MINNESOTA-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 45-16 SU and 36-24 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/21: MEMPHIS vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2.5 vs IND)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 110-29 SU and 92-47 ATS (66.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-7 vs ORL), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 73-46 SU and 70-46-3 ATS (60.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (-1 at DET), PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 at POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 56-18 SU and 50-23-1 ATS (68.5%).
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (-1 at DET)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 195-197 SU and 165-217-10 ATS (43.2%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+2.5 at MEM)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 171-191 SU and 155-205-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (-4 vs. WSH), FADE CHICAGO (-5.5 vs. SAS)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 188-188 SU and 164-201-11 ATS (44.9%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NOP)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 100-70 SU and 101-67-2 ATS (60.1%).
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 114-42 SU and 89-65-2 ATS (57.8%).
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-1 at DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 152-194 ATS (43.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-87 SU and 42-60-3 ATS (41.2%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+1 vs UTA), FADE LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 34-51 ATS (40%) in the next game, including 15-27 ATS (35.7%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at OKC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+1.8) and LA LAKERS +6.5 (+1.8), 3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+3.0), 2. CHICAGO -5.5 (+1.0), 3. MILWAUKEE -7 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +1 (+3.8), 2. LA LAKERS +6.5 (+2.5), 3. ORLANDO +7 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+4.0), 2. CHICAGO -5.5 (+0.7), 3. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-OKC OVER 236 (+2.7), 2. ORL-MIL OVER 236 (+2.3), 3. NOP-CLE OVER 229 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-MIN UNDER 225 (-4.2), 2. IND-MEM UNDER 247.5 (-3.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.2), 2. LA LAKERS +6.5 (+2.1), 3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+3.2), 2. CHICAGO -5.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-OKC OVER 236 (+2.2), 2. ORL-MIL OVER 236 (+1.6), 3. NOP-CLE OVER 229 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-MEM UNDER 247.5 (-4.1), 2. LAL-MIN UNDER 225 (-4.0), 3. WSH-POR UNDER 241 (-0.1)