The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, November 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, BOSTON, PHOENIX, OKLAHOMA CITY
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, BOSTON
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on money line wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-POR, HOU-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAC-DAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 163-107 SU and 160-102 ATS (61.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 60-34 SU and 57-34-3 ATS (62.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 48-23 SU and 46-23-2 ATS (66.7%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 31-11 SU and 29-12-1 ATS (70.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 32-10 SU and 28-11-3 ATS (71.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 39-16 SU and 34-18-3 ATS (65.4%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
11/19: PORTLAND vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 18-9 SU and 17-3-7 ATS (85%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 40-27 SU and 40-26-1 ATS (60.6%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
11/19: LA LAKERS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs HOU)
* Home teams playing a 4thin6Days game were 28-16 SU and 25-18-1 ATS (58.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
11/19: PORTLAND vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
* Host teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS (100%) hosting teams playing a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last two seasons.
11/19: INDIANA vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4.5 vs ORL)
* OVER the total was 90-58 (60.8%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/19: Over the total in INDIANA-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)
* Over the total was 63-38 (62.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/19: OVER the total in PORTLAND-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
* Over the total was 43-28 (60.6%) over the last two season when the home team was on #+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/19: Over the total in INDIANA-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)
* Under the total was 24-15 (61.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/19: Under the total in LA LAKERS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220)
* Over the total was 24-17 (58.5%) last season when the home team was on 3+DaysRest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/19: Over the total in INDIANA-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ORLANDO is 8-6 SU and 12-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
11/19: ORLANDO at Indiana
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+4.5 at IND)
* TORONTO is 27-6 SU and 25-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
11/19: TORONTO vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-9 vs DET)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 88-20 SU but just 43-64-1 ATS (40.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 at MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-81 (58.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 151-103 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-MEM (o/u at 221)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 224-166 (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in BOS-MEM (o/u at 221)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 160-180 SU and 146-192-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-5 at Utah)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 21-43 SU but 35-29 ATS (54.7%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND ATS (+6.5 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 37-10 SU & 30-15-2 ATS (66.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-10.5 at MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (117-146 ATS, 44.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (172-151 ATS, 53.3%) over the L3 seasons.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9 at TOR), PLAY PORTLAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 137-173 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-73 SU & 36-51-3 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9 at TOR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today's Tope 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +2 (+3.3), 2. MEMPHIS +10.5 (+1.9), 3. UTAH +5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+2.1), 2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+1.4), 3. INDIANA -4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+3.5), 2. MEMPHIS +10.5 (+3.2), 3. DALLAS +2 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -3 (+2.0), 2. PHOENIX -5 (+0.4), 3. TORONTO -9 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-POR OVER 225 (+1.7), 2. HOU-LAL OVER 220 (+1.3), 3. DEN-CLE OVER 216 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-IND UNDER 237 (-3.6), 2(tie). PHI-BKN UNDER 224.5 (-1.3) and SAC-DAL UNDER 244.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +10.5 (+4.7), 2. DALLAS +2 (+2.5), 3. CLEVELAND +3 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -5.5 (+4.6), 2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+4.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-CLE OVER 216 (+2.3), 2. PHI-BKN OVER 224.5 (+2.2), 3. HOU-LAL OVER 220 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-IND UNDER 237 (-6.1), 2. BOS-MEM UNDER 221 (-4.2), 3. DET-TOR UNDER 219.5 (-3.8)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) BOSTON at (566) MEMPHIS
* FAVORITES are on a 12-3 ATS run in the BOS-MEM series
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS