The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Sunday, December 31, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, ORLANDO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-WSH, BKN-OKC, SAC-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 49-19 SU and 42-23-3 ATS (64.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
12/31: NEW ORLEANS vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-6.5 vs LAL)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 26-17 SU but 20-22-1 ATS (47.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/31: FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. La Lakers
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-6.5 vs LAL)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 25-9 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/31: NEW ORLEANS vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-6.5 vs LAL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 26-8 SU and 22-11 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
12/31: MEMPHIS vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 vs SAC)
* MEMPHIS is 46-16 SU and 37-24 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/31: MEMPHIS vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 vs SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 99-22 SU but just 45-74-2 ATS (37.8%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON ATS (-13.5 at SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 119-90 (56.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-115 (59.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-SAS (o/u at 241)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 236-185 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ORL-PHX (o/u at 231)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 176-195 SU and 160-209-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-6 vs ORL)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 117-43 SU and 91-67-2 ATS (57.6%).
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-6 vs ORL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 27-8 SU and 26-7-2 ATS (78.8%) in their last 35 tries.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-7 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 40-11 SU and 32-17-2 ATS (65.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 at SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 47-41 SU and 50-36-3 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-7 vs WSH)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +1 (+2.1), 2. WASHINGTON +7 (+1.9), 3. ORLANDO +6 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -13.5 (+4.7), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.8), 3. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +13.5 (+3.5), 2. SACRAMENTO +1 (+3.3), 3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-OKC OVER 234.5 (+2.3), 2. LAL-NOP OVER 230.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-SAS UNDER 241 (-3.1), 2. ORL-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-2.0), 3. SAC-MEM UNDER 236 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +1 (+3.1), 2. WASHINGTON +7 (+1.7), 3. ORLANDO +6 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: