The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, November 4, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of last night at 10:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW ORLEANS, INDIANA, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, BOSTON
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS, LA LAKERS, DENVER
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that the majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ML for BOTH): BOSTON, DENVER (*only if they both become double-digit favorites by tip-off*)
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX ML
This last system involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MIN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* OVER the total was 18-9 (66.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/4: Over the total in BROOKLYN-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)
* UNDER the total is 12-5 (70.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/4: Under the total in DENVER-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 216.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS on the ROAD in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
11/4: FADE ATLANTA at New Orleans
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 at New Orleans)
* BROOKLYN was 15-3 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
11/4: UNDER the total in BOSTON-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 86-20 SU but just 42-63-1 ATS (40%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DENVER ATS (*only if the spread gets to -10 or higher*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 63-46 (57.8%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 114-80 (58.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 149-102 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in CHI-DEN (*only if the spread gets to DEN -10 or higher*), PLAY UNDER the total in BOS-BKN (*only if the spread gets to BOS -10 or higher*)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 172-174 SU and 144-192-10 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 at Brooklyn)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 217-160 (57.6%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in LAL-ORL (o/u at 218.5), PLAY UNDER in ATL-NOP (o/u at 232)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 152-176 SU and 140-187-1 ATS (42.8%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 at Brooklyn), FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs Sacramento), FADE PHOENIX (+3.5 at Philadelphia)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 173-175 SU and 152-186-10 ATS (45%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 at Brooklyn), FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs Sacramento)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 52-59 SU and 45-62-4 ATS (42.1%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 at Brooklyn)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 33-10 SU and 29-13-1 ATS (69.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9.5 at Brooklyn)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +3 (+5.4), 2. ORLANDO +3.5 (+2.5), 3. UTAH +7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -9.5 (+3.8), 2. BOSTON -9.5 (1.1), 3. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +3.5 (+4.6), 2. ATLANTA +3 (+3.4), 3. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -9.5 (+4.2), 2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-HOU OVER 221 (+11.2), 2. LAL-ORL OVER 218.5 (+3.6), 3. UTA-MIN OVER 226.5 (+3.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-BKN UNDER 230 (-3.0), 2. ATL-NOP UNDER 232 (-2.7), 3. CHI-DEN UNDER 216.5 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +3 (+5.5), 2. ORLANDO +3.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -9.5 (+4.4), 2. SACRAMENTO -3 (+2.0), 3. BOSTON -9.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-HOU OVER 221 (+9.4), 2. LAL-ORL OVER 218.5 (+4.0), 3. UTA-MIN OVER 226.5 (+3.8)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-BKN UNDER 230 (-3.5), 2. ATL-NOP UNDER 232 (-2.4)