The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, November 25, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-CLE, NOP-UTA, DAL-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 100-74 SU BUT 69-104 ATS (39.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 41-34 SU but 27-48 ATS (36%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 54-34 SU but 34-54 ATS (38.6%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 30-19 SU but 18-31 ATS (36.7%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 19-14 SU but 13-20 ATS (39.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
11/25: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
11/25: FADE UTAH vs. New Orleans
System Match: FADE UTAH (+1 vs NOP)
* Over the total was 20-9 (67.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/25: Over the total in WASHINGTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248.5)
* Over the total was 20-11 (64.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
11/25: Over the total in BROOKLYN-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 216.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
11/25: FADE ATLANTA at Washington
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-8.5 at WSH)
* MIAMI is 22-17 SU and 25-12 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
11/25: MIAMI at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+4 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 181-182 SU and 152-201-10 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-8.5 at WSH), FADE BROOKLYN (-4 vs MIA)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 228-168 (57.6%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-OKC (o/u at 229)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 110-41 SU and 86-63-2 ATS (57.7%).
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs LAL)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that lost on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 65-46 SU and 67-44 ATS (60.4%)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs LAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been an 8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (121-148 ATS, 45%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (175-156 ATS, 52.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+1 vs NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 41-36 SU and 44-31-3 ATS (58.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs. ATL), PLAY UTAH (+1 vs. NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 141-178 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-78 SU and 38-54-3 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs ATL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+5.6), 2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+3.8), 3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+6.7), 2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+3.7), 3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -8.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-BKN OVER 216 (+6.8), 2. NOP-UTA OVER 232.5 (+3.7), 3. LAL-CLE OVER 224.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-OKC UNDER 230 (-6.3), 2. ATL-WSH UNDER 248.5 (-3.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+3.3), 2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.9), 3. UTAH +1 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: