The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, January 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MILWAUKEE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-WSH, UTA-PHI, MIL-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOS-IND
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 51-19 SU and 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/6: PHILADELPHIA vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 26-20 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/6: WASHINGTON vs. New York
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9 vs NYK)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 20-17 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/6: HOUSTON vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+6.5 vs MIL)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 36-32 SU and 35-32-1 ATS (52.2%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/6: HOUSTON vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+6.5 vs MIL)
* Under the total was 76-45 (62.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/6: Under the total in HOUSTON-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 237.5)
* Over the total was 67-40 (62.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/6: Over the total in HOUSTON-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)
* Over the total was 61-41 (59.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/6: Over the total in WASHINGTON-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 239)
* Under the total was 36-31 (53.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/6: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 237.5)
* Over the total was 28-13 (68.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
1/6: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238)
* Over the total was 24-12 (66.7%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/6: Over the total in WASHINGTON-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 239)
* Under the total is 14-7 (66.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/6: Under the total in INDIANA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 248)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* HOUSTON is 12-40 SU and 17-34 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/6: Fade HOUSTON vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+6.5 vs MIL)
* INDIANA is 18-13 SU and 22-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
1/6: INDIANA vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+6 vs BOS)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 104-23 SU but just 48-77-2 ATS (38.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 119-96 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-117 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in UTA-PHI (o/u at 238)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 205-207 SU and 176-226-10 ATS (43.8%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6 vs BOS)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 240-190 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BOS-IND (o/u at 247.5)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 63-63 SU and 54-67-5 ATS (44.6%) in their next game.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+6 vs BOS), FADE NEW YORK (-9 at WSH)
4. NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 70-51 SU and 70-51 ATS (57.9%)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). INDIANA +6 (+2.6) and UTAH +11.5 (+2.6), 3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -9 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +11.5 (+4.0), 2. HOUSTON +6.5 (+3.8), 3. INDIANA +6 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -9 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-WSH OVER 239 (+0.8), 2. IND-BOS OVER 248 (+0.5)