The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, January 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CHICAGO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE, CHICAGO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, MILWAUKEE ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a significant amount, but compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS ML, UTAH ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-BOS, WSH-ATL, NYK-MEM, ORL-OKC, GSW-MIL, NOP-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in GSW-MIL (o/u at 246), PLAY UNDER in WSH-ATL (o/u at 249.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 51-20 SU and 44-24-3 ATS (64.7%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/13: DALLAS vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs NOP)
1/13: MILWAUKEE vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs GSW)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 38-17 SU and 30-24-1 ATS (55.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/13: BOSTON vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-16 vs HOU)
1/13: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs ORL)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS (69.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/13: DALLAS vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs NOP)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 37-32 SU and 36-32-1 ATS (52.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/13: MEMPHIS vs. New York
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+8 vs NYK)
1/13: UTAH vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+1 vs LAL)
* Under the total was 78-47 (62.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/13: Under the total in UTAH-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 238.5)
* Over the total was 71-41 (63.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/13: Over the total in BOSTON-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
1/13: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)
* Over the total was 62-43 (59%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/13: Over the total in BOSTON-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
1/13: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)
* Under the total was 37-31 (54.4%) last season when the home team was in H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/13: Under the total in NEW YORK-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222)
1/13: Under the total in LA LAKERS-UTAH
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 238.5)
* Under the total is 15-7 (68.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/13: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 18-31 SU and 15-33 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/13: FADE ATLANTA vs. Washington
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-7 vs WSH)
* HOUSTON is 29-10 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/13: Over the total in BOSTON-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-15 OVER the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/13: Over the total in ORLANDO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 111-23 SU but just 51-81-2 ATS (38.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-16 vs. HOU), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. ORL), FADE MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs. GSW)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-55 (55.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 122-97 (55.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-117 (59.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-BOS (o/u at 228), ORL-OKC (o/u at 231.5), GSW-MIL (o/u at 246)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 208-212 SU and 178-232-10 ATS (43.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. ORL), FADE MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs. GSW), FADE UTAH (+1 vs. LAL), FADE GOLDEN STATE (+11.5 at MIL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+6 vs. CHI)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 199-193 SU but 174-206-12 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+11.5 at MIL), FADE UTAH (+1 vs LAL)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 103-72 SU and 104-69-2 ATS (60.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs ORL), PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+6 vs CHI)
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 120-43 SU and 93-68-2 ATS (57.8%).
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-6 at SAS)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 65-65 SU and 56-69-5 ATS (44.8%) in their next game.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs. GSW), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. ORL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+6 vs. CHI), FADE UTAH (+1 vs. LAL)
6. NBA teams that lose on a points spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 72-54 SU and 72-54 ATS (57/1%)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-16 vs HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (135-159 ATS, 45.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (194-175 ATS, 52.6%) over the L3 seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING WASHINGTON (+7 at ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 49-44 SU and 53-38-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7 at ATL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +1 (+3.0), 2. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+2.8), 3. HOUSTON +16 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -7 (+2.0), 2. NEW YORK -8 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +1 (+3.1), 2. HOUSTON +16 (+2.3), 3. NEW ORLEANS +3 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -6 (+0.7), 2. MILWAUKEE -11.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-BOS OVER 228 (+1.3), 2. GSW-MIL OVER 246 (+0.8), 3. CHI-SAS OVER 229 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-UTA UNDER 238.5 (-1.1), 2. NOP-DAL UNDER 230.5 (-0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+2.1), 2. MEMPHIS +8 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -7 (+4.6), 2. MILWAUKEE -11.5 (+1.8), 3. DALLAS -3 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MIL OVER 246 (+3.6), 2. ORL-OKC OVER 231.5 (+2.1), 3. NOP-DAL OVER 230.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-SAS UNDER 229 (-1.5), 2. LAL-UTA UNDER 238.5 (-1.4), 3. NYK-MEM UNDER 222 (-0.6)