The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, January 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, SAN ANTONIO, GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, SAN ANTONIO, INDIANA
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, INDIANA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: There was a supermajority figure that really stood out when analyzing the handle of bettors backing an underdog in a moneyline wager. This supermajority percentage was 75% or more, and this group went 10-2 for +11.35 units of profit. This is the highest R.O.I. system of the bunch by far, 94.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-NYK, DET-WSH, SAS-ATL, IND-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-WSH, SAS-ATL, IND-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-TOR (o/u at 243.5), PLAY UNDER in SAS-ATL (o/u at 246), PLAY UNDER in IND-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 166-112 SU and 163-107 ATS (60.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 108-78 SU but 77-107-1 ATS (41.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/15: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs HOU)
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 58-39 SU and 63-32 ATS (66.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
1/15: BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 vs MIA)
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 44-36 SU but 31-49 ATS (38.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/15: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs HOU)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 61-37 SU and 58-37-3 ATS (61.1%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-26 SU and 47-26-2 ATS (64.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 59-37 SU but 38-57-1 ATS (40%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/15: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs HOU)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 31-13 SU and 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/15: BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 vs MIA)
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 52-21 SU and 44-26-3 ATS (62.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/15: UTAH vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-7 vs IND)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 32-20 SU but 19-32-1 ATS (37.3%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/15: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs HOU)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 21-32 SU but 30-22-1 ATS (57.7%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/15: INDIANA at Utah
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+7 at UTA)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 40-17 SU and 32-24-1 ATS (57.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/15: UTAH vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-7 vs IND)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 27-10 SU and 25-12 ATS (67.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/15: UTAH vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-7 vs IND)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/15: BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 vs MIA)
1/15: CLEVELAND vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4 vs CHI)
* Over the total was 95-61 (60.9%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/15: Over the total in CLEVELAND-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
* Under the total was 78-49 (61.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/15: Under the total in ATLANTA-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 246)
1/15: Under the total in MEMPHIS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* Over the total was 72-42 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
1/15: Over the total in UTAH-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245.5)
* Over the total was 63-44 (58.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/15: Over the total in UTAH-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245.5)
* Over the total was 46-29 (61.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/15: Over the total in CLEVELAND-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
* Over the total is 9-2 (81.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing in a H2A b2b scenario.
1/15: Over the total in BROOKLYN-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
* Over the total was 21-15 (58.3%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/15: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* Over the total was 26-17 (60.5%) last season when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/15: Over the total in BROOKLYN-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
1/15: Over the total in CLEVELAND-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 19-48 SU and 19-48 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
1/15: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Memphis
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at MEM)
* GOLDEN STATE is 24-8 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/15: Over the total in MEMPHIS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* HOUSTON is 30-10 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/15: OVER the total in PHILADELPHIA-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* MEMPHIS is 47-17 SU and 37-26 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
1/15: MEMPHIS vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+7.5 vs GSW)
* ORLANDO is 11-7 SU and 16-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
1/15: ORLANDO at New York
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+6.5 at NYK)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 211-214 SU and 182-233-10 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-7 at TOR)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 243-191 (56%) since 2021. (CLE 1/15) (TOR 1/15) (NOP 1/15) (UTA 1/15)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DAL (o/u at 236), CHI-CLE (o/u at 221), BOS-TOR (o/u at 243.5), IND-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 185-204 SU and 168-219-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7 at TOR), FADE TORONTO (+7 vs BOS)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 200-194 SU but 176-206-12 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-7 at TOR)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 104-73 SU and 106-69-2 ATS (60.6%).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs HOU), PLAY WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs DET), PLAY MIAMI (+2 at BKN)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 68-66 SU and 59-70-5 ATS (45.7%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs DET)
7. NBA teams that lost on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 73-55 SU and 73-55 ATS (57%).
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-8 vs. SAS), PLAY TORONTO (+7 vs. BOS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (136-159 ATS, 46.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (194-176 ATS, 52.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING DETROIT (+5.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 158-200 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 19-93 SU and 46-63-3 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+5.5 at WSH)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +7 (+1.4), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+1.1), 3. HOUSTON +7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+1.2) and LA LAKERS -1 (+1.2) and ATLANTA -7.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +5.5 (+0.8), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+0.7), 3. DALLAS +4.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -7.5 (+2.6), 2. BOSTON -7 (+0.6), 3. PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-WSH OVER 240.5 (+0.7), 2. NOP-DAL OVER 236 (+0.6), 3. ORL-NYK OVER 220.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-LAL UNDER 238 (-2.3), 2. HOU-PHI UNDER 228 (-1.6), 3. BOS-TOR UNDER 242 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +7 (+1.6), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -7.5 (+3.6), 2. LA LAKERS -1 (+3.5), 3. BOSTON -7 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-NYK OVER 220.5 (+2.7), 2. SAS-ATL OVER 246 (+2.3), 3. HOU-PHI OVER 228 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-CLE UNDER 221 (-4.4), 2. BOS-TOR UNDER 242 (-3.7), 3. GSW-MEM UNDER 227 (-1.5)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(561) BOSTON at (562) TORONTO
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the BOS-TOR series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(559) CHICAGO at (560) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND has won the last three ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(553) DETROIT at (554) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 hosting Detroit
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS