The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, January 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, PORTLAND, DALLAS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX ML, DENVER ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-HOU, DAL-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a “super” majority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-MIL, DAL-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in IND-MIL, PLAY UNDER in DAL-UTA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 105-77 SU BUT 74-106-1 ATS (41.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/1: FADE DENVER vs. Charlotte
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 vs CHA)
1/1: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Miami
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 57-36 SU BUT 36-56-1 ATS (39.1%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/1: FADE DENVER vs. Charlotte
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 vs CHA)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* LA CLIPPERS is 12-9 SU BUT 4-17 ATS at HOME in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
1/1: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Miami
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MIA)
* MIAMI is 22-18 SU and 25-13 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/1: MIAMI at La Clippers
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+7 at LAC)
* PHOENIX is 34-17 OVER the total at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/1: OVER the total in PORTLAND-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 100-22 SU but just 46-74-2 ATS (38.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-15 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 119-91 (56.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-115 (59.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-DEN (o/u at 227), PLAY OVER in POR-PHX (o/u at 230)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 199-201 SU and 169-221-10 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+11.5 at PHX), FADE INDIANA (+8.5 at MIL)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 237-185 (56.2%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DET-HOU (o/u at 228), PLAY UNDER in MIA-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 177-195 SU and 160-210-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+15 at DEN), FADE PORTLAND (+11.5 at PHX), FADE TORONTO (-2.5 vs CLE), FADE INDIANA (+8.5 at MIL)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 194-190 SU and 169-203-12 ATS (45.4%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+15 at DEN), FADE INDIANA (+8.5 at MIL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 157-199 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-92 SU and 45-62-3 ATS (42.1%).
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+15 at DEN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DETROIT +9 (+1.5) and NEW YORK +1 (+1.5), 3. UTAH +3 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -11.5 (+2.9), 2. DENVER -15 (+1.3), 3. MILWAUKEE -8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +11.5 (+1.7), 2. MIAMI +7 (+1.3), 3. CHARLOTTE +15 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -1 (+2.7), 2. HOUSTON -9 (+1.3), 3. MILWAUKEE -8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-PHX OVER 230 (+3.0), 2. MIN-NYK OVER 223.5 (+1.6), 3. IND-MIL OVER 260.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-UTA UNDER 245 (-1.1), 2(tie). CLE-TOR UNDER 227.5 (-0.8) and CHA-DEN UNDER 227 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3 (+1.3), 2. NEW YORK +1 (+1.0), 3. DETROIT +9 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -11.5 (+3.5), 2. DENVER -15 (+0.7), 3. MILWAUKEE -8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-PHX OVER 230 (+5.4), 2. IND-MIL OVER 260.5 (+2.9), 3. MIN-NYK OVER 223.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-HOU UNDER 228 (-1.6), 2. CLE-TOR UNDER 227.5 (-0.5)