The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, December 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA, BROOKLYN
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA, BROOKLYN, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, ATLANTA ML, TORONTO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-PHI, DAL-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-ATL, WSH-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-IND, DET-ATL, WSH-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 101-74 SU but 70-104 ATS (40.2%) versus teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last three seasons.
12/18: FADE LA LAKERS vs. New York
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4 vs NYK)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 42-34 SU but 28-48 ATS (36.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/18: FADE LA LAKERS vs. New York
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4 vs NYK)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 55-34 SU but 35-54 ATS (39.3%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/18: FADE LA LAKERS vs. New York
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4 vs NYK)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 45-18 SU and 39-21-3 ATS (65%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
12/18: SACRAMENTO vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-12.5 vs WSH)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 31-19 SU but 19-31 ATS (38%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/18: FADE LA LAKERS vs. New York
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4 vs NYK)
*Over the total was 20-12 (62.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
12/18: Over the total in LA LAKERS-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* HOUSTON is 27-9 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
12/18: OVER the total in CLEVELAND-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)
* PHILADELPHIA is 21-10 SU & 20-11 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
12/18: PHILADELPHIA vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHI)
* TORONTO is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/18: TORONTO vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-11 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 109-29 SU and 91-47 ATS (65.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 92-22 SU but just 44-69-1 ATS (38.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (-12.5 vs WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-87 (56.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 165-111 (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHI-PHI (o/u at 227.5), PLAY OVER in DET-ATL (o/u at 246), PLAY OVER in CHA-TOR (o/u at 225), PLAY OVER in MEM-OKC (o/u at 229.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-SAC (o/u at 248)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 192-194 SU and 162-214-10 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at IND), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHI)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 168-190 SU and 152-204-2 ATS (42.7%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-1.5 at MIA)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 187-187 SU and 164-199-11 ATS (45.2%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (-12.5 vs WSH)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 60-61 SU and 52-64-5 ATS (44.8%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHI)?NBA teams that lost on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 67-49 SU and 69-47 ATS (59.5%)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHI)
NBA teams that lost on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 67-49 SU and 69-47 ATS (59.5%)
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11 at TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 74-13 SU but 35-50-3 ATS (41.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 148-194 ATS (43.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-86 SU and 41-60-3 ATS (40.6%).
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at IND), FADE DETROIT (+11 at ATL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +4 (+2.2), 2. WASHINGTON +12.5 (+1.4), 3. DETROIT +11 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+2.1), 2. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+1.9), 3. TORONTO -11 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +11 (+3.8), 2. INDIANA +3.5 (+2.8), 3. HOUSTON +4 (+2.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-MIA OVER 217 (+1.7), 2. WSH-SAC OVER 248 (+1.6), 3. HOU-CLE OVER 215 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-3.7), 2. LAC-IND UNDER 246 (-3.6), 3. CHI-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +4 (+1.0), 2. INDIANA +3.5 (+0.9), 3. MIAMI +1.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -7.5 (+3.2), 2. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+2.3), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-IND OVER 246 (+3.5), 2. MIN-MIA OVER 217 (+2.6), 3. HOU-CLE OVER 215 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DET-ATL UNDER 246 (-5.0) and NYK-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-5.0), 3. WSH-SAC UNDER 248 (-3.0)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(517) BROOKLYN at (518) UTAH
* The last five games of the BRK-UTA series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(511) CHARLOTTE at (512) TORONTO
* TORONTO has won the last three ATS hosting Charlotte
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(503) CHICAGO at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the CHI-PHI series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS