The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, November 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, INDIANA, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, PHOENIX, DENVER
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle money line bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO ML, SACRAMENTO ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-TOR, WSH-MIL, SAS-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-IND, PLAY UNDER in WSH-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 163-109 SU and 160-104 ATS (60.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/24: DETROIT at Indiana
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+9 at IND)
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 58-37 SU and 63-30 ATS (67.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
11/24: DETROIT vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+9 at IND)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 48-25 SU and 46-25-2 ATS (64.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 32-11 SU and 28-12-3 ATS (70%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 18-10 SU and 17-4-7 ATS (81%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/24: NEW YORK vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
11/24: DETROIT vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+9 at IND)
* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/24: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-9 vs DET)
* Over the total was 92-58 (61.3%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/24: Over the total in INDIANA-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246)
11/24: Over the total in NEW YORK-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 212.5)
* Under the total was 66-36 (64.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/24: Under the total in ORLANDO-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221.5)
* Over the total was 45-28 (61.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/24: Over the total in NEW YORK-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 212.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* INDIANA is 52-29 OVER the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
11/24: Over the total in INDIANA-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246)
* MEMPHIS is 45-13 SU and 36-21 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
11/24: MEMPHIS vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+7.5 vs PHX)
* MIAMI is 22-16 SU and 24-12 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
11/24: MIAMI at New York
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+5.5 at NYK)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 64-48 (57.1%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-82 (58.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 153-103 (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in WSH-MIL (o/u at 246.5), PLAY OVER the total in SAS-GSW (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 226-167 (57.5%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in SAC-MIN (o/u at 229.5), PLAY UNDER in PHX-MEM (o/u at 223.5), PLAY UNDER in NOP-LAC (o/u at 225)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 163-180 SU and 148-193-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+5.5 at NYK)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 183-180 SU and 160-192-11 ATS (45.5%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+5.5 at NYK)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 97-66 SU and 97-64-2 ATS (60.2%).
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+3 vs DEN)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 57-59 SU and 48-63-5 ATS (43.2%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+5.5 at NYK)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 39-11 SU and 31-17-2 ATS (64.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY PHOENIX (-7.5 at MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (120-148 ATS, 44.8%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (174-155 ATS, 52.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+9 at IND), PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 at MIL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 41-35 SU and 43-31-3 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 139-177 ATS (44%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 17-75 SU and 36-53-3 ATS (40.4%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9 at IND), FADE WASHINGTON (+13.5 at MIL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 at GSW)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+3.6), 2. HOUSTON +3 (+1.8), 3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -5.5 (+2.4), 2. MINNESOTA -4 (+2.2), 3. MILWAUKEE -13.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MEMPHIS +7.5 (+4.4) and HOUSTON +3 (+4.4), 3. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -5 (+3.2), 2. MINNESOTA -4 (+2.8), 3. TORONTO -5.5 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-GSW OVER 234.5 (+2.6), 2. DEN-HOU OVER 216.5 (+0.5), 3. NOP-LAC OVER 225 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BOS-ORL UNDER 221.5 (-4.5) and DET-IND UNDER 246 (-4.5), 3. SAC-MIN UNDER 229.5 (-3.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+5.0), 2. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+0.7), 3. ORLANDO +5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -13.5 (+2.5), 2. MINNESOTA -4 (+2.2), 3. NEW YORK -5.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-GSW OVER 234.5 (+3.6), 2. PHX-MEM OVER 223.5 (+1.4), 3. NOP-LAC OVER 225 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MIN UNDER 229.5 (-5.6), 2. DET-IND UNDER 246 (-3.2), 3. BOS-ORL UNDER 221.5 (-2.4)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(555) BOSTON at (556) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won the last four ATS vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(559) CHICAGO at (560) TORONTO
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the CHI-TOR series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total