The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, December 29, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BROOKLYN, SACRAMENTO, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, PHILADELPHIA, CHARLOTTE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX ML
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: There was a supermajority figure that really stood out when analyzing the handle of bettors backing an underdog in a moneyline wager. This supermajority percentage was 75% or more, and this group went 10-2 for +11.35 units of profit. This is the highest R.O.I. system of the bunch by far, 94.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): SACRAMENTO ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-ORL, CHA-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-WSH, SAC-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAC-ATL, BKN-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 104-77 SU BUT 73-106-1 ATS (40.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 43-36 SU but 30-49 ATS (38%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 56-36 SU but 35-56-1 ATS (38.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 46-19 SU and 39-23-3 ATS (62.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
12/29: LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
12/29: PORTLAND vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (-5.5 vs SAS)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 21-31 SU but 30-21-1 ATS (58.8%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/29: SAN ANTONIO at Portland
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at POR)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 25-17 SU but 19-22-1 ATS (46.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 35-29 SU and 35-28-1 ATS (55.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/29: BOSTON vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 vs TOR)
12/29: DENVER vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs OKC)
* Under the total was 73-42 (63.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/29: UNDER the total in HOUSTON-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224.5)
12/29: UNDER the total in WASHINGTON-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 242.5)
* Over the total was 59-41 (59%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rdin4Days game.
12/29: OVER the total in PORTLAND-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232.5)
* Under the total was 33-30 (52.4%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/29: UNDER the total in TORONTO-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
12/29: UNDER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DENVER
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 236.5)
* Over the total was 26-13 (66.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
12/29: OVER the total in PORTLAND-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232.5)
* Over the total was 21014 (60%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
12/29: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* LA CLIPPERS is 11-9 SU but 3-17 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/29: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs MEM)
* MEMPHIS is 16-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
12/29: UNDER the total in LA CLIPPERS-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* MILWAUKEE is 3-14 SU and 1-15 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
12/29: MILWAUKEE at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-6 at CLE)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 98-22 SU but just 45-73-2 ATS (38.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+15.5 at PHX)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 118-90 (56.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-115 (59.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-PHX (o/u at 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 198-200 SU and 168-220-10 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-6 at CLE), FADE DENVER (-2.5 vs OKC)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 193-189 SU and 168-202-12 ATS (45.4%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-6 at CLE), FADE DENVER (-2.5 vs OKC)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 102-70 SU and 103-67-2 ATS (60.6%).
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at POR)
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 117-42 SU and 91-66-2 ATS (58%).
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-6 at WSH)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 155-199 ATS (43.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-91 SU and 44-62-3 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+15.5 at PHX)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +5.5 (+4.1), 2. ORLANDO +1 (+1.2), 3. TORONTO +8 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -6 (+1.4), 2. LA CLIPPERS -7 (+1.1), 3. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +1 (+2.8), 2. WASHINGTON +6 (+1.6), 3. SAN ANTONIO +5.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -7 (+2.4), 2. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+1.8), 3. PHOENIX -16 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-BOS OVER 225.5 (+1.7), 2. BKN-WSH OVER 242.5 (+1.6), 3. NYK-ORL OVER 227 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-POR UNDER 232.5 (-2.5), 2. MEM-LAC UNDER 225.5 (-1.1), 3. PHI-HOU UNDER 224.5 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +5.5 (+3.9), 2. ORLANDO +1 (+3.7), 3. SACRAMENTO PK (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -6 (+1.6), 2. MILWAUKEE -6 (+1.2), 3. DENVER -2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DEN OVER 236.5 (+4.0), 2. TOR-BOS OVER 225.5 (+2.0), 3. SAC-ATL OVER 252 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CLE UNDER 239.5 (-3.1), 2. CHA-PHX UNDER 230.5 (-2.9), 3. PHI-HOU UNDER 224.5 (-2.3)
Top Daily H2h Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(547) BROOKLYN at (548) WASHINGTON
* BROOKLYN is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is on a four-game ATS winning streak vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS