The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, December 22, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, GOLDEN STATE, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, GOLDEN STATE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): GOLDEN STATE ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-HOU, WSH-GSW, PHX-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-GSW, PHX-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 102-75 SU but 71-105 ATS (40.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Washington
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs WSH)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 55-35 SU but 35-55 ATS (38.9%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Washington
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs WSH)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 31-20 SU but 19-32 ATS (37.3%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
12/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Washington
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs WSH)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 24-16 SU but 18-22 ATS (45%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Washington
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs WSH)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 Under the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
12/22: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 247)
* HOUSTON is 11-39 SU & 16-33 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
12/22: FADE HOUSTON vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-8.5 vs DAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 94-22 SU but just 44-71-1 ATS (38.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE ATS (-12 vs WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 117-87 (57.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 167-114 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-GSW (o/u at 247)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 195-198 SU and 165-218-10 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 at MIA)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 172-192 SU and 156-206-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-1.5 vs ATL)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 188-189 SU and 164-202-11 ATS (44.8%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs. WSH), FADE SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. PHX)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 114-42 SU and 89-65-2 ATS (57.8%).
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 46-40 SU and 49-35-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs DEN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -1.5 (+0.8), 2. GOLDEN STATE -12 (+0.7), 3. DENVER -4.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +8.5 (+1.5), 2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+1.2), 3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GOLDEN STATE -12 (+0.3) and MIAMI -1.5 (+0.3), 3. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-HOU OVER 223.5 (+2.6), 2. ATL-MIA OVER 237.5 (+0.5), 3. DEN-BKN OVER 231 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-SAC UNDER 243.5 (-6.7), 2. WSH-GSW UNDER 247 (-1.3), 3. TOR-PHI UNDER 230.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +8.5 (+1.3), 2. DALLAS +8.5 (+1.2), 3. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: