The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, December 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the hone side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BOSTON, DALLAS, TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DALLAS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, a R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, NEW ORLEANS ML
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Over the total was 29-21 (58%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/1: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)
12/1: Over the total in TORONTO-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 216)
Top team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* DALLAS is 13-10 SU and 5-16 ATS at HOME in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
12/1: Under the total in MEMPHIS-DALLAS
System Match: FADE DALLAS (9.5 vs MEM)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 104-28 SU and 86-46 ATS (65.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7 vs PHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 65-50 (56.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 158-106 (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in WSH-ORL (o/u at 237.5), PLAY UNDER in SAS-NOP (o/u at 237.5),
PLAY UNDER in MEM-DAL (*only if DAL becomes a double-digit favorite* (-9.5 currently))
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 183-185 SU and 154-204-10 ATS (43%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-11 vs WSH), FADE DENVER (-2 at PHX), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+12.5 at NOP)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 229-172 (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WSH-ORL (o/u at 237.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 164-182 SU and 150-194-2 ATS (43.6%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-11 vs WSH)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 184-182 SU and 162-193-11 ATS (45.6%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-7 vs PHI)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been an 8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (124-149 ATS, 45.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (178-159 ATS, 52.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+12.5 at NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 145-183 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-80 SU & 40-55-3 ATS (42.1%).
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO ATS (-11 vs WSH), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+12.5 at NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 33-49 ATS (40.2%) in the next game, including 14-26 ATS (35%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO ATS (-11 vs WSH)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +7 (+2.4), 2. WASHINGTON +11 (+1.5), 3. NEW YORK +2 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -9.5 (+0.9), 2. DENVER -2 (+0.2), 3. NEW ORLEANS -12.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +12.5 (+1.7), 2. MEMPHIS +9.5 (+0.4), 3. PHILADELPHIA +7 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -11 (+1.6), 2. DENVER -2 (+0.5), 3. TORONTO -2 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BOS OVER 225 (+0.5), 2. MEM-DAL OVER 230 (+0.2), 3. NYK-TOR OVER 216 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-NOP UNDER 237.5 (-3.3), 2. WSH-ORL UNDER 237.5 (-1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +11 (+2.5), 2. NEW YORK +2 (+1.3), 3. SAN ANTONIO +12.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: