VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, August 9
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, August 9, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 8/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE TEXAS, FADE BOSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick 'em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.
System Match: 2-game – FADE HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, TEXAS, SEATTLE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE TORONTO, FADE SAN DIEGO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE LA ANGELS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: CLEVELAND, OAKLAND
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 50-111 (-45.6 units, ROI: -28.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 26-57 in their last 83 tries (-18 units, ROI: -21.7%).
Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 120-98 run (+46.55 units, ROI: 21.4%).
System Matches: ARIZONA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today's UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PITTSBURGH (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS (+18), LA DODGERS (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TEXAS-OAKLAND OVER 8.5 (+1.0)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-CINCINNATI UNDER 10 (-0.6), HOUSTON-BALTIMORE UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), KANSAS CITY-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-0.6), ST LOUIS-TAMPA BAY UNDER 9.5 (-0.9)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(951) MIAMI (59-56) at (952) CINCINNATI (60-56)
Trend: Miami not great against NL competition (36-41, -10.69 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami not good as ML underdog (18-32, -7.65 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER in non-NL East games (33-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati pretty good against NL East/West (29-24, +8.23 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (23-25, -1.92 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER during the DAY (20-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) COLORADO (45-68) at (954) MILWAUKEE (61-54)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (27-49, -12.20 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (45-35, +6.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(955) WASHINGTON (50-64) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (62-52)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (28-30, +17.65 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (25-39, -0.86 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (32-34, -11.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(957) ATLANTA (71-40) at (958) PITTSBURGH (51-62)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (48-20, +15.30 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in NIGHT games (41-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh pretty good against NL East/West (24-22, +9.45 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (37-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) CHICAGO-NL (59-55) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (51-62)
Trend: Chicago better against LH starters (20-16, +3.50 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: NYM bad bet as ML underdog (8-25, -16.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (21-28, -16.35 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (16-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (66-46) at (962) ARIZONA (57-57)
Trend: LAD better against RH starters (50-28, +10.20 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (50-27, +8.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-32, +7.14 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
(963) TEXAS (68-46) at (964) OAKLAND (32-82)
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (30-16, +9.75 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending UNDER in ROAD games (23-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division games (13-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(965) MINNESOTA (60-55) at (966) DETROIT (50-63)
Trend: Minnesota okay record against division (22-16, -4.00 units)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Detroit good bet against division (19-13, +8.45 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(967) HOUSTON (65-49) at (968) BALTIMORE (70-43)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (34-24, +7.41 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston not often a ML underdog (15-12, +5.55 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Baltimore good against AL competition (52-29, +23.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore 2nd best team in MLB as ML favorite (38-20, +11.35 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(969) TORONTO (64-51) at (970) CLEVELAND (55-59)
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (22-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not good bet as ML underdog (18-27, -6.40 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(971) KANSAS CITY (37-78) at (972) BOSTON (58-55)
Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (20-50, -21.41 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Boston good record against AL Central/West teams (24-19)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER (25-17 O/U against AL Central/West, 44-37 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(973) NEW YORK-AL (59-55) at (974) CHICAGO-AL (46-69)
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (32-41, -15.67 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER (28-43 O/U in NIGHT games, 40-50 O/U vs RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (16-34, -18.69 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(975) ST LOUIS (49-65) at (976) TAMPA BAY (69-46)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (26-45, -30.02 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis trending UNDER on the ROAD (23-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (38-19, +7.95 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay best team in MLB as ML favorite (62-31, +11.95 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(977) SAN FRANCISCO (62-52) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (57-58)
Trend: San Francisco good bet at NIGHT (38-25, +8.75 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (24-37 O/U)