The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, July 29, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, COLORADO, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
– Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 23, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 173-99 record, but for -56.44 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE MINNESOTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
– A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 233-236 for +54.47 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.6%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 164-157 for -31.59 units, an R.O.I. of -9.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 60-76 for -20.11 units. The R.O.I. on that system is -14.8%, the exact same figure our latest set of results netted.
3+ Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: FADE BOSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
– When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 157-94 for +36.95 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 14.7%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– When on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 157-119 for +12.5 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 77-48 for +24.47 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 19.6%.
2 Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: LA DODGERS
3+ Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: MINNESOTA, COLORADO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting. System Matches: FADE ATLANTAROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE NY METS, FADE ATLANTA, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today's UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+16), TEXAS (+27)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+30), NY METS (+31), TORONTO (+47), MINNESOTA (+41), BALTIMORE (+39), HOUSTON (+17), BOSTON (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-ST LOUIS OVER 9.5 (+1.1), MINNESOTA-KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5 (+0.9), TAMPA BAY-HOUSTON OVER 8.5 (+0.6), SEATTLE-ARIZONA OVER 9 (+0.9)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA UNDER 10 (-0.9), CINCINNATI-LA DODGERS UNDER 10.5 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for every team.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (56-47) at (902) PITTSBURGH (45-58)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (29-30, -8.50 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia worse against NL (34-34, -10.60 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Pittsburgh better against NL West/East (21-21, +5.10 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh OVER in NIGHT games (32-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) WASHINGTON (43-61) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (49-54)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (23-28, +11.55 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington worse at NIGHT (21-38, -6.20 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (11-24, -20.85 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER in HOME games (14-30 O/U, including UNDER in 7 of L8)
System Match: UNDER
(905) CHICAGO-NL (52-51) at (906) ST LOUIS (46-59)
Trend: Chicago not as good against RH starters (33-38, -7.55 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: St. Louis not good at NIGHT (24-40, -26.05 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St. Louis OVER in HOME games (29-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) MILWAUKEE (57-47) at (908) ATLANTA (65-36)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-30, +11.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee worse against NL East/West (17-20, -1.55 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL Central (11-2 this year)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta OVER in HOME games (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) CINCINNATI (57-48) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-44)
Trend: Cincinnati better against NL East/West (27-19, +13.80 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (35-25, +17.05 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (35-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good play at NIGHT (44-26, +3.85 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD better against RH starters (46-27, +7.65 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-50) at (912) TORONTO (58-46)
Trend: LAA OVER on ROAD (27-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA better against AL East/Central teams (25-18, +5.30 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (43-32, +7.90 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (16-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(913) MINNESOTA (54-51) at (914) KANSAS CITY (30-75)
Trend: Minnesota better bet against division (21-13, -0.20 units)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (15-48, -27.20 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(915) CLEVELAND (52-52) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (42-63)
Trend: Cleveland UNDER in divisional games (8-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (35-31, +1.90 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Chicago better in division (16-15, -0.50 units)
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(917) NEW YORK-AL (54-49) at (918) BALTIMORE (63-40)
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (28-36, -14.00 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (48-26, +22.20 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Orioles OVER in AL games (39-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(919) TAMPA BAY (63-43) at (920) HOUSTON (58-46)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (26-24, -5.35 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (19-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (27-24, -10.35 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(921) DETROIT (46-58) at (922) MIAMI (56-48)
Trend: Miami good against AL competition (22-11, +14.35 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami UNDER outside of division play (31-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) BOSTON (56-47) at (924) SAN FRANCISCO (56-48)
Trend: Boston worse against NL competition (18-20, -5.00 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: San Francisco good in NIGHT games (35-23, +8.15 units)