VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 8
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
VSiN.com’s Betting Splits pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds
DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, RICE, CINCINNATI, RUTGERS, MEMPHIS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, OREGON, TULANE, WEST VIRGINIA, TEXAS, UTSA, HAWAII, NORTH CAROLINA, COASTAL CAROLINA, OLE MISS, TCU, UNLV, DUKE, SAN DIEGO STATE, ARIZONA STATE
DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, RUTGERS, AIR FORCE, OKLAHOMA, MEMPHIS, IOWA, MISSOURI, OREGON, NORTH CAROLINA, COASTAL CAROLINA, OLE MISS, LSU, SAN DIEGO STATE
DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY, NEW MEXICO STATE, SMU, RUTGERS, AIR FORCE, MEMPHIS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TEXAS, UTSA, HAWAII, COASTAL CAROLINA, OLE MISS, TEXAS TECH, APPALACHIAN STATE, MICHIGAN
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.
System matches (FADE ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, JAMES MADISON, SMU, RUTGERS, AIR FORCE, MEMPHIS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, SOUTH FLORIDA, WISCONSIN, BUFFALO, TEXAS, UTSA, COASTAL CAROLINA, OLE MISS, APPALACHIAN STATE, MICHIGAN
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): RICE, BOSTON COLLEGE, PENN STATE, AKRON, CHARLOTTE, TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA, EASTERN MICHIGAN, TCU, UTAH STATE, DUKE, ARIZONA STATE
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, LOUISIANA MONROE, TENNESSEE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, PITTSBURGH, TCU, DUKE
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System matches (PLAY ALL): LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, SAM HOUSTON STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE, JAMES MADISON, TULSA, SMU
DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 100-131 ATS (43.3%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, SOUTH ALABAMA, NEW MEXICO STATE, SMU, OKLAHOMA, AIR FORCE, RUTGERS, MEMPHIS, OHIO, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, OREGON, MISSOURI, TULANE, WAKE FOREST, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, EASTERN MICHIGAN, TEXAS, NORTH CAROLINA, OLE MISS, UNLV, UTAH STATE, MICHIGAN, LSU, SAN DIEGO STATE
DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the HANDLE backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager but the line moved toward the OPPOSITE team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually the public loses.
System matches (FADE ALL): SAM HOUSTON STATE, ARKANSAS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, MIAMI OHIO, MICHIGAN, MIAMI FLA., STANFORD
DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games in which the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.
System matches (PLAY UNDER): UCF-OKLAHOMA, COASTAL CAROLINA-ARKANSAS STATE, UTAH STATE-SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERs, this didn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority were sharp.
System matches (PLAY UNDER): AIR FORCE-NAVY, AKRON-BOWLING GREEN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-BALL STATE, WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS, MINNESOTA-IOWA, BUFFALO-KENT STATE, NORTHWESTERN-NEBRASKA
DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the HANDLE has a majority on totals and the # of BETS has the opposite majority, the majority HANDLE plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.
System matches:
PLAY UNDER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors UNDER
PLAY OVER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors OVER
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)
Best
* WISCONSIN is 9-5 SU and ATS (64.3%) in revenge mode since ’16
System matches: PLAY WISCONSIN (-2.5 at Illinois)
* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 16-8 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
System matches: PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-4.5 at Ball State)
* BUFFALO is 12-12 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
System matches: PLAY BUFFALO (-7 at Kent State)
* NAVY is 12-21 SU and 21-12 ATS (63.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
System matches: PLAY NAVY ATS (+11 vs Air Force)
College football revenge systems
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 94-109 ATS (46.3%) since 2016.
System matches: FADE WASHINGTON (-26.5 vs Arizona State), FADE NEBRASKA (-12 vs Northwestern)
Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 83-14 SU and 65-28-4 ATS (69.9%) since 2016.
System match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-26.5 vs Arizona State)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 591-528 ATS (52.8%) as compared with those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).
System matches (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAMS ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): NEW MEXICO STATE, JAMES MADISON, PENN STATE, MIAMI FLA., NAVY, WISCONSIN, EASTERN MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON, TCU, ALABAMA, AUBURN, NEBRASKA
College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are 157-76 SU and 135-90-8 ATS (60%).
System matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, ALABAMA, FLORIDA STATE, USC
· Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 92-17 SU and 68-37-4 ATS (64.8%).
System matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, ALABAMA, FLORIDA STATE
· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 47-14 SU and 42-16-3 ATS (72.4%) since ’17.
System matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, ALABAMA
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring TWO RANKED TEAMS with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 34-13 (72.3%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 21-6 (77.8%).
System matches: PLAY UNDER in Duke-Florida State (O/U at 49)
Extreme stat next game CFB betting systems
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 121-166 ATS (42.2%) over the last decade-plus.
System match: FADE WASHINGTON STATE (+19 at Oregon)
Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
In the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 132-91 ATS (59.2%).
System match: PLAY PENN STATE ATS (+4 at Ohio State)
Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 58-37-1 ATS (61.1%) over the last 10 years.
System match: PLAY UTAH STATE (+5.5 at San Jose State)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 64-38 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System matches: PLAY IOWA (-5 vs Minnesota), PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (+11.5 at Northern Illinois)
This week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. NEW MEXICO +1 (+4.3), 2. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +3.5 (+3.6), 3. MIAMI OHIO +1.5 (+3.1), 4 (tie). RICE +3 (+2.9) and UCONN +2.5 (+2.9), 6. BALL STATE +4.5 (+2.7), 7. GEORGIA STATE +3 (+2.3), 8. NEVADA +13.5 (+2.2), 9. SOUTH CAROLINA +7 (+1.9), 10. JACKSONVILLE STATE +7.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. IOWA -3.5 (+6.0), 2. BOWLING GREEN -8 (+5.2), 3. SMU -19.5 (+4.6), 4 (tie). EAST CAROLINA -7 (+4.5) and KANSAS STATE -6.5 (+4.5), 6 (tie). SOUTH ALABAMA -18.5 (+4.1) and WASHINGTON -26.5 (+4.1), 8. UCLA -17 (+3.7), 9. AIR FORCE -11 (+2.7), 10. NORTH CAROLINA -23 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +3.5 (+6.0), 2. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14.5 (+5.4), 3. TEMPLE +19.5 (+5.1), 4. ARIZONA STATE +26.5 (+4.8), 5. NAVY +11 (+4.7), 6. MIAMI FLA. +4 (+4.0), 7. STANFORD +17 (+3.6), 8. WASHINGTON STATE +19.5 (+3.6), 9. NEVADA +13.5 (+2.6), 10. MIAMI OHIO +1.5 (+2.5)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. NORTH CAROLINA -23 (+4.7), 2. CINCINNATI -2.5 (+4.5), 3. GEORGIA SOUTHERN -17 (+4.0), 4 (tie). IOWA -3.5 (+3.7) and LOUISIANA -3 (+3.7), 6. ARKANSAS -6 (+3.3), 7. MICHIGAN -24.5 (+3.1), 8. WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 (+2.8), 9 (tie). WISCONSIN -2.5 (+2.3) and SAM HOUSTON STATE -5.5 (+2.3)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. AIR FORCE-NAVY OVER 37.5 (+6.9), 2. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-BALL STATE OVER 41.5 (+6.7), 3. BUFFALO-KENT STATE OVER 44.5 (+6.0), 4. CLEMSON-MIAMI FLA. OVER 49 (+4.3), 5. UCLA-STANFORD OVER 54 (+4.2), 6. AKRON-BOWLING GREEN OVER 39.5 (+3.8), 7. JAMES MADISON-MARSHALL OVER 51 (+3.6) and RUTGERS-INDIANA OVER 40.5 (+3.6), 9. MISSISSIPPI STATE-ARKANSAS OVER 49 (+3.1), 10. TCU-KANSAS STATE OVER 59 (+2.8)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. WASHINGTON STATE-OREGON UNDER 62.5 (-4.0), 2. GEORGIA STATE-LOUISIANA UNDER 62 (-3.9), 3. NORTH TEXAS-TULANE UNDER 63 (-3.0), 4 (tie). WESTERN MICHIGAN-OHIO UNDER 52 (-2.9) and HAWAII-NEW MEXICO UNDER 60 (-2.9), 6. UTAH-USC UNDER 56 (-2.6), 7. UTSA-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 60.5 (-2.2), 8 (tie). MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-LIBERTY UNDER 56.5 (-2.0) and DUKE-FLORIDA STATE UNDER 49.5 (-2.0) and TENNESSEE-ALABAMA UNDER 49 (-2.0)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. COLORADO STATE +8 (+11.9), 2. WASHINGTON STATE +19.5 (+7.2), 3. UCF +19 (+6.8), 4. KENT STATE +7 (+6.7), 5 (tie). RICE +3 (+5.3) and PITTSBURGH +1.5 (+5.3), 7. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +5.5 (+4.8), 8. UTEP +3 (+4.3), 9. MARSHALL +4 (+3.7), 10 (tie). GEORGIA STATE +3 (+3.5) and SOUTH CAROLINA +7 (+3.5)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. WASHINGTON -26.5 (+12.6), 2. TULANE -19.5 (+5.4), 3. USC -7 (+4.7), 4. CINCINNATI -2.5 (+4.6), 5. TOLEDO -1.5 (+4.5), 6. SOUTH FLORIDA -2.5 (+4.2), 7. MEMPHIS -5.5 (+3.8), 8. WISCONSIN -2.5 (+3.7), 9. COASTAL CAROLINA -10.5 (+2.8), 10. APPALACHIAN STATE -6 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. PENN STATE-OHIO STATE OVER 46.5 (+7.6), 2. RUTGERS-INDIANA OVER 40.5 (+6.4), 3. AIR FORCE-NAVY OVER 37.5 (+6.0), 4. UCF-OKLAHOMA OVER 65 (+5.1), 5. MINNESOTA-IOWA OVER 32.5 (+4.1), 6. USF-UCONN OVER 54.5 (+3.9), 7. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-BALL STATE OVER 41.5 (+3.5), 8. AKRON-BOWLING GREEN OVER 39.5 (+3.4), 9. TOLEDO-MIAMI OHIO OVER 49 (+3.3), 10. OLE MISS-AUBURN OVER 56.5 (+3.2)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. UTSA-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 60.5 (-6.0), 2. GEORGIA STATE-LOUISIANA UNDER 62 (-4.6), 3. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-SAM HOUSTON STATE UNDER 40.5 (-3.5), 4. HAWAII-NEW MEXICO UNDER 60 (-3.1), 5. UTAH STATE-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 66.5 (-2.9), 6 (tie). BOSTON COLLEGE-GEORGIA TECH UNDER 58 (-2.6) and EASTERN MICHIGAN-NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNDER 45.5 (-2.6), 8. WESTERN MICHIGAN-OHIO UNDER 52 (-2.4), 9. LOUISIANA MONROE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 59.5 (-2.3), 10. TEXAS-HOUSTON UNDER 61.5 (-1.8)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* AIR FORCE is 28-14 (66.7%) ATS in Non-Conference games since '14
System matches: PLAY AIR FORCE (-11 at Navy)
* ARIZONA STATE is 20-10-1 (66.7%) ATS as Underdog since '18
System matches: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+28.5 at Washington)
* BOSTON COLLEGE is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS in Conference games since '20
System matches: PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE (+5 at Georgia Tech)
* CLEMSON is 18-6 (75%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since '20
System matches: PLAY CLEMSON (-4 at Miami FL)
* FLORIDA STATE is 5-14 (26.3%) ATS in Conference games since '21
System matches: FADE FLORIDA STATE (-14 vs Duke)
* JAMES MADISON is 15-5 (75%) ATS as Favorite since '20
System matches: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-3.5 at Marshall)
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-11 (65.6%) UNDER the total since '21
System matches: PLAY UNDER in MISSISSIPPI STATE-ARKANSAS (O/U at 49.5)
* NEBRASKA is 1-9 (10%) ATS at Home in last 10
System matches: FADE NEBRASKA (-12 vs Northwestern)
* NEW MEXICO is 14-34 (29.2%) ATS in Conference games since '17
* NEW MEXICO is 3-15 (16.7%) ATS as Favorite since '18
System matches: FADE NEW MEXICO (-2 vs Hawaii)
* OLD DOMINION is 6-15 (28.6%) ATS at Home since '19
System matches: FADE OLD DOMINION (+6 vs App State)
* OLE MISS is 4-14 (22.2%) ATS in Conference games since '21
System matches: FADE OLE MISS (-6.5 at Auburn)
* PENN STATE is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS coming off SU win since '19
System matches: PLAY PENN STATE (+4.5 at Ohio State)
* SOUTH ALABAMA is 13-32 (28.9%) ATS coming off SU win since '14
System matches: FADE SOUTH ALABAMA (-18 vs Southern Miss)
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 36-17 (67.9%) UNDER the total since '19
System matches: PLAY UNDER in NEVADA-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 49.5)
* TEMPLE is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS coming off SU loss since '20
System matches: PLAY TEMPLE (+19.5 vs SMU)
* TULANE is 38-16 (70.4%) ATS as Favorite since '14
System matches: PLAY TULANE (-19.5 vs North Texas)
* UAB is 16-4 (80%) ATS at Home since '20
System matches: PLAY UAB (+5.5 vs Memphis)
* UTEP is 4-16 (20%) ATS at Home since '20