VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 6
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games (records are shown heading into the 2023 season). These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds
DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, KANSAS STATE, TEXAS, RUTGERS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UTSA, WASHINGTON STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTH TEXAS, USF, RICE, TULSA, KENTUCKY, COLORADO, ULM, NOTRE DAME, MICHIGAN, TEXAS TECH, MIAMI FL, COLORADO STATE, OREGON STATE
DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON STATE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, FLORIDA STATE, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA, ALABAMA, KANSAS, USF, RICE, COLORADO, KENTUCKY, NOTRE DAME, MICHIGAN, TCU, MIAMI (FL), COLORADO STATE, OREGON STATE
DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS STATE, LSU, TOLEDO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UTSA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, USF, COLORADO, NOTRE DAME, MICHIGAN, TEXAS TECH, TCU, COLORADO STATE, FRESNO STATE, OREGON STATE
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY, KANSAS STATE, LSU, TOLEDO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, ALABAMA, USF, COLORADO, NOTRE DAME, MICHIGAN, TEXAS TECH, TCU, COLORADO STATE, FRESNO STATE, OREGON STATE
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, a higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, NEBRASKA, BOSTON COLLEGE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MARYLAND, RUTGERS, MARSHALL, WASHINGTON STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, NORTH TEXAS, TULSA, KENTUCKY, OLD DOMINION, ARIZONA
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, MARYLAND, RUTGERS, WASHINGTON STATE, TEXAS STATE, TULSA, KENTUCKY
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. Their mistake often proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE, LIBERTY, WESTERN KENTUCKY, KANSAS STATE
DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 100-131 ATS (43.3%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, LIBERTY, KANSAS STATE, TOLEDO, MARSHALL, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON STATE, IOWA, NORTH TEXAS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, MIAMI (OH), FLORIDA, KANSAS, USF, RICE, TULSA, COLORADO, OLD DOMINION, MICHIGAN, MIAMI (FL), FRESNO STATE, TCU, BOISE STATE, OREGON STATE
DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, but the line moved towards the opposite team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually, the public loses.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEBRASKA, MARYLAND, TOLEDO, MIAMI (OH), ALABAMA, IOWA, NORTH TEXAS, TROY, KANSAS, FLORIDA, RICE, TULSA, COLORADO
DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when the majority handle bettors favored the Under, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WKU-LA TECH, TOLEDO-UMASS, SAN JOSE STATE-BOISE STATE, GA TECH-MIAMI (FL), COLORADO STATE-UTAH STATE
DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this didn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority were sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NEBRASKA-ILLINOIS, PURDUE-IOWA
DK Betting Splits system #12: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over were 22-13 (62.9%). Again, not a ton of plays here but the more public option of the number of bets was pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): NIU-AKRON, BALL STATE-EASTERN MICHIGAN
DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the handle has a majority on totals and the # of bets has the opposite majority, the majority handle plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.
System Matches:
PLAY UNDER when opposite majorities and handle favors UNDER
PLAY OVER when opposite majorities and handle favors OVER
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best & worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)
* KENTUCKY is 15-13 SU and 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY KENTUCKY ATS (+14.5 at Georgia)
* BUFFALO is 11-12 SU and 15-8 ATS (65%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS (+3 vs Central Michigan)
* CALIFORNIA is 16-17 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA ATS (+9.5 vs Oregon St)
* OLE MISS is 10-21 SU and 11-19 ATS (36.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: FADE OLE MISS (-11.5 vs Arkansas)
* MASSACHUSETTS is 2-18 SU and 7-13 ATS (35%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: FADE MASSACHUSETTS (+19 vs. Toledo)
College Football Revenge Systems
Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 40-25 ATS (61.5%).
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA (+6 vs Texas)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 92-108 ATS (46%) since 2016.
System Matches: FADE NEW MEXICO STATE (-6 vs. FIU), FADE FLORIDA (-18.5 vs. Vanderbilt)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 583-524 ATS (52.7%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).
System Matches (good defensive teams allowing <=24 PPG): OKLAHOMA STATE, NEBRASKA, FLORIDA, KENTUCKY, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI (OH), OHIO, OKLAHOMA, MARYLAND, IOWA STATE, ARIZONA, OLE MISS, TEXAS A&M
College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
- In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are NOW 151-75 SU and 130-89-7 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSOURI, GEORGIA, LOUISVILLE
- Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 88-16 SU and 65-36-3 ATS (64.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSOURI, GEORGIA
- Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 44-13 SU and 40-15-2 ATS (72.7%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY MISSOURI
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 34-12 (73.9%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 21-6 (77.8%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in Kentucky-Georgia (o/u at 47.5)
Extreme stat next game CFB betting systems
Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 87-60 ATS (59.2%).
System Match: PLAY RUTGERS ATS (+14 at Wisconsin)
Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 37-62 SU and 33-62-4 ATS (34.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match: FADE GEORGIA TECH (+20.5 at Miami (FL))
Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for the next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last 10 years.
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (-4.5 at Arizona State)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 63-38 ATS (62.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: PLAY IOWA (-2.5 vs Purdue)
This week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the college football tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA +6 (+6.0), 2. JACKSONVILLE STATE +3.5 (+5.8), 3. GEORGIA TECH +20.5 (+4.7), 4. IOWA STATE +6.5 (+4.6), 5. NORTH TEXAS +6 (+4.3), 6. UAB +3.5 (+3.9), 7. BAYLOR +1 (+3.7), 8. UTAH STATE +1.5 (+3.1), 9. OKLAHOMA STATE +11.5 (+2.7), 10(tie). TEXAS STATE +1 (+2.2) and MINNESOTA +19.5 (+2.2)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH ALABAMA -12 (+4.6), 2. ALABAMA -2.5 (+4.4), 3. FL ATLANTIC -4 (+3.8), 4. IOWA -2.5 (+3.7), 5. MISSISSIPPI STATE -20.5 (+3.6), 6. LSU -6.5 (+3.5), 7. TROY -16.5 (+3.3), 8. UCLA -3.5 (+3.2), 9. GEORGIA -14.5 (+3.0), 10. RICE -9.5 (+2.8)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE +18 (+4.7), 2. RUTGERS +14 (+4.6), 3. IOWA STATE +6.5 (+3.6), 4(tie). VIRGINIA TECH +24 (+3.5) and BOWLING GREEN +10 (+3.5), 6(tie). KENTUCKY +14.5 (+2.9) and OKLAHOMA +6 (+2.9), 8. BOSTON COLLEGE +3 (+2.8), 9. SAN JOSE STATE +9.5 (+2.7), 10. TEXAS STATE +1 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOLEDO -19 (+3.5), 2. OHIO -26 (+3.2), 3. MIAMI (FL) -20.5 (+3.1), 4. COLORADO -4.5 (+2.7), 5. SOUTH FLORIDA -3.5 (+2.3), 6. EASTERN MICHIGAN -2.5 (+2.2), 7. OLE MISS -11.5 (+2.0), 8. FL ATLANTIC -4 (+1.5), 9. MICHIGAN -19.5 (+1.4), 10. MID TENN STATE -3.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PURDUE-IOWA OVER 39 (+8.0), 2. BOWLING GREEN-MIAMI (OH) OVER 47.5 (+3.6), 3(tie). NEB-ILLINOIS OVER 43.5 (+2.7) and ALABAMA-TEXAS A&M OVER 47 (+2.7), 5(tie). UTSA-TEMPLE OVER 56.5 (+2.6) and RUTGERS-WISC OVER 44.5 (+2.6), 7(tie). UCONN-RICE OVER 47.5 (+2.5) and C MICHIGAN-BUFFALO OVER 53.5 (+2.5), 9. VANDY-FLORIDA OVER 52 (+2.3), 10. TEXAS TECH-BAYLOR OVER 57.5 (+2.0)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARIZONA-USC UNDER 72 (-7.2), 2. JACKSONVILLE STATE-MID TENN ST UNDER 51.5 (-3.6), 3. UCF-KANSAS UNDER 65 (-3.4), 4(tie). WKU-LA TECH UNDER 59.5 (-3.3) and USF-UAB UNDER 69 (-3.3), 6. NOTRE DAME-LOUISVILLE UNDER 54 (-3.1), 7. TEXAS ST-LA LAFAYETTE UNDER 69.5 (-3.0), 8 (tie). KENT STATE-OHIO UNDER 45.5 (-2.7) and KANSAS ST-OKLAHOMA ST UNDER 55 (-2.7), 10. N TEXAS-NAVY UNDER 59.5 (-2.5)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE +18 (+12.0), 2. GA TECH +20.5 (+11.4), 3. UAB +3.5 (+7.0), 4. OKLAHOMA +6 (+6.6), 5. UTAH STATE +1.5 (+6.1), 6. OKLAHOMA STATE +11.5 (+4.9), 7. BALL STATE +2.5 (+4.7), 8. BOSTON COLLEGE +3 (+4.1), 9. CALIFORNIA +9.5 (+4.0), 10. MINNESOTA +19.5 (+3.8)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA -14.5 (+10.2), 2. MISSISSIPPI STATE -20.5 (+7.1), 3. IOWA -2.5 (+6.4), 4. FL ATLANTIC -4 (+6.3), 5. LSU -6.5 (+6.1), 6(tie). ALABAMA -2.5 (+6.0) and NOTRE DAME -6.5 (+6.0), 8. SOUTHERN MISS -1.5 (+5.4), 9. COLORADO -4.5 (+4.8), 10. SOUTH ALABAMA -12 (+4.7)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PURDUE-IOWA OVER 39 (+9.1), 2(tie). WAKE F-CLEMSON OVER 51.5 (+5.4) and ALABAMA-TEXAS A&M OVER 47 (+5.4), 4. RUTGERS-WISCO OVER 44.5 (+4.9), 5. OKLA-TEXAS OVER 60.5 (+4.6), 6(tie). VANDY-FLORIDA OVER 52 (+4.1) and NIU-AKRON OVER 44 (+4.1), 8. WASH STATE-UCLA OVER 59 (+4.0), 9. N TEXAS-NAVY OVER 59.5 (+3.9), 10. BALL STATE-E MICHIGAN OVER 43 (+3.6)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LSU-MIZZOU UNDER 65 (-5.7), 2. OLD DOMIN-SOUTHERN MISS UNDER 58 (-4.7), 3. JACKSONVILLE STATE-MID TENN ST UNDER 51.5 (-4.4), 4. TEXAS STATE-LA LAFAYETTE UNDER 69.5 (-3.9), 5. COLORADO-AZ ST UNDER 60.5 (-3.4), 6. COLORADO STATE-UTAH STATE UNDER 64 (-3.1), 7. USF-UAB UNDER 69 (-3.0), 8. C MICHIGAN-BUFFALO UNDER 53.5 (-2.6), 9(tie). KENTUCKY-UGA UNDER 49 (-2.4) and SAN JOSE STATE-BOISE STATE UNDER 59 (-2.4)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* AKRON is 11-27 (28.9%) ATS at Home since 2016
System Match: FADE AKRON (+5 vs. Northern Illinois)
* ARIZONA is 13-25 (34.2%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2016
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+21.5 at USC)
* ARIZONA STATE is 20-10 (66.7%) ATS as Underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+4.5 vs Colorado)
* BOWLING GREEN is 11-29 (27.5%) ATS as Underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+10 at Miami (OH))
* BUFFALO is 17-6 (73.9%) ATS at Home since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+3 vs. Central Michigan)
* CALIFORNIA is 22-10 (68.8%) ATS as Underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+9.5 vs Oregon State)
* FLORIDA STATE is 4-13 (23.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
System Match: PLAY FLORIDA STATE (-24.5 vs Virginia Tech)
* FRESNO ST is 23-10 (69.7%) UNDER the total since 2021
* FRESNO ST is 17-6 (73.9%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2021
System Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-5.5 at Wyoming), PLAY UNDER in FSU-WY (o/u at 46.5)
* IOWA STATE is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS as Underdog since 2021
System Match: PLAY IOWA STATE (+6.5 vs TCU)
* KANSAS is 2-9 (18.2%) ATS as Favorite since 2018
System Match: FADE KANSAS (-2.5 vs UCF)
* LOUISVILLE is 2-9 (18.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE LOUISVILLE (+6.5 vs Notre Dame)
* LSU is 20-9 (69%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY LSU (-6.5 at Missouri)
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-10 (67.7%) UNDER the total since 2021
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS at Home since 2021
System Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (-20.5 vs. W. Michigan), PLAY UNDER in WMU-MSST (o/u at 57)
* OLE MISS is 4-13 (23.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE OLE MISS (-11.5 vs Arkansas)
* PURDUE is 14-6 (70%) ATS as Underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY PURDUE (+2.5 at Iowa)
* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 10-2 (83.3%) ATS as Underdog since 2017
System Match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+18 at Liberty)
* TEMPLE is 12-4 (75%) ATS coming off SU Loss since 2020