Somehow, it's June 23 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn't smacked a dinger at home. Let's examine the odds for when Guerrero will hit a home run at the Rogers Centre from our best sports betting apps.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is struggling and performing far below expectations in 2023.
There's no doubt about that simple observation. He hasn't cratered and is still producing respectable numbers. But much more is expected of him given how high his past seasons have set the bar.
And yet, another fundamental truth lingers amid a bizarre season: He's putting up many statistical oddities, the most significant of which is that he hasn't hit a dinger at home entering play on June 23.
One of our MLB betting sites is offering a unique market rooted in this question: When Will Vladim ir Guerrero Jr. hit a home run at the Rogers Centre?
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Rogers Centre home run odds
(odds via FanDuel as of June 23 at 12:51 p.m. ET)
| Date and game of home run | Odds |
| June 23 vs. Athletics | +290 |
| June 24. vs. Athletics | +390 |
| June 25 vs. Athletics | +550 |
| June 27 vs. Giants | +750 |
| June 28 vs. Giants | +1100 |
| June 29 vs. Giants | +1600 |
| June 30 vs. Red Sox | +1600 |
| July 1 vs. Red Sox | +2000 |
| July 2 vs. Red Sox | +2500 |
| After July 3 or no homer at Rogers Centre in 2023 | +500 |
Struggles and strangeness in 2023
Vlad's season has been equal parts frustrating and puzzling.
It began promising enough when he ended March and April with a .309/394/.491 slash line and five of his nine total home runs. He was still performing at a high level in mid-May, which is when his OPS last sat above .900 (.901 on May 16).
But he's hit just two home runs since that point, one of which came off a position player during a blowout. Even more incredibly, Guerrero has notched a meager six extra-base hits over the same period, a span of 33 games.
However, as painful as he's been to watch at times while Guerrero pounds balls into the carpet, there seems to be a significant degree of disastrous luck at play here.
Vlad is looking very much like his usual self in many ways.
Sure, he hits plenty of ground balls. But his ground-ball rate finished at 45.6% during his breakout campaign with 48 homers in 2021. It's only slightly higher at 47.1% in 2023.
And in typical fashion, his Baseball Savant page is dripping with red. He sits among the top 2% in average exit velocity at 94.1 mph and hard-hit percentage at 55.9%, which is higher than his 50.4 in 2022 and 55.2 in 2021.
His walk rate is mostly in line with career norms, and he's striking out in a career-low 15.4% of his plate appearances. So what's the issue then? Everything always comes back to launch angle with Vlad.
Guerrero's average launch angle is 8.5 degrees, down considerably from 9.4 in 2021. He's always been one to hit more scorching line drives than fly balls, but the two-time All-Star hasn't been getting as muc h lift recently.
However, even with that in mind, some of the oddness around Vlad is difficult to explain beyond shrugging and saying baseball is really weird sometimes. His expected batting average and slugging (.303 and .526, respectively) are much higher than his actual lines (.275 and .423).
And he's a slugger who calls a long-ball friendly park home after Rogers Centre has ranked 12th leaguewide since 2021 in homers, according to Statcast's park factors. Rogers Centre also just underwent a massive facelift to make it even more comfortable for hitters. Yet his home-road splits are stunning in 2023.
| Situation | Batting average | On-base percentage | Slugging | OPS |
| Home | .239 | .311 | .299 | .610 |
| Road | .299 | .369 | .509 | .878 |
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When will he homer at Rogers Centre?
There's a soft landing ahead for the Blue Jays and Guerrero when they return home from a nine-game road trip, beginning with a three-game set against the Oakland Athletics starting on Friday. Series against the San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Detroit Tigers follow.
That's a whole lot of homer-happy pitching staffs, and the Athletics have most notably surrendered an MLB-worst 113 deep flies. But the Red Sox aren't far ahead on the Blue Jays' schedule, and they've allowed the ninth-most h ome runs (94).
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Still, the Athletics provide the greatest opportunity for Guerrero to finally lift off at home, and for his power hitting to fall in line with the 24-year-old's advanced metrics. Their staff ERA is a laughable 6.01, which is easily a league-worst and far lower than the 29th-place Colorado Rockies at 5.47.
The athletics will send James Kaprielian (6.38 ERA), Hogan Harris (4.45), and Luis Medina (7.01 ERA) to the mound. Picking on Kaprielian before his Friday start is tempting given his ballooning ERA. But as woeful as he's been, Kaprielian has allowed a modest eight home runs. That comes off a 2022 season when his homer total was again tolerable at 16 (the league-worst was 38).
Instead, the best play is to target the game when Guerrero is likely to get his most opportunities agains t Oakland's dreadful and league-worst bullpen with its 5.61 ERA. And the homer stars are aligning nicely, as that matchup will probably come Sunday when Guerrero is getting the juiciest odds during the Oakland Series (+550).
Medina is slated to start for the A's then, or at least account for the bulk of the innings. He hasn't completed five innings in three of his last four appearances. The most disastrous came earlier in June, when Medina departed after just two innings and gave up six earned runs.
He's pitched six innings just twice this campaign, and Medina will give way to a bullpen that's coughed up 41 round-trippers (29th). And Vlad will get a chance to feast when Medina is in the game, too. The righty surrendered 10 homers over just his first five outings and 27 2/3 innings of 2023.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run June 25 vs. Athletics (+550 via FanDuel)
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