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The Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in a key NFC North matchup that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field.
The status of Jordan Love is still up in the air, as I break down my best Vikings vs. Packers player prop bets as part of our NFL Week 4 predictions.
If Love is unable to go, then Malik Willis will get his third consecutive start, but he'll see a significant increase in competition from his previous two games against one of the fastest risers by the Super Bowl odds.
If Willis starts, this could still be a solid game for Packers' wide receivers. The Vikings don't give up a lot of passing yards, but they do allow a lot of completions. And on the other side, how will Sam Darnold fare against the Packers' secondary?
Vikings vs. Packers NFL player prop bets: Sunday
Odds as of Friday and subject to c hange.
- Christian Watson touchdown pick: Christian Watson anytime touchdown scorer (+290 via FanDuel) ???
- Sam Darnold Under 226.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ????
- Jayden Reed Over 4.5 receptions (+120 via bet365) ???
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Vikings vs. Packers touchdown pick
First of all, I need to address how terrible the price for this prop is at DraftKings. The sportsbook is offering just +190 for Watson to score a touchdown, which is not nearly enough considering how quiet he's been over the last few weeks.
With that being said, the +290 being offered by FanDuel is well worth a play. Watson had two catches for 67 yards last week as he and Willis started to get on th e same page.
If Willis doesn't play this week, then Watson's chances of scoring a touchdown go up, as he caught his only score of the season with Love under center.
The Vikings have only given up one rushing touchdown this season. Josh Jacobs has yet to score this year, and it's likely the Packers are going to need to throw when they get in the red zone.
Watson is a big body who is very useful near the goal line. Look for him to capitalize this week no matter who is throwing him the ball.
Best odds: +290 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25.64%
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Best Vikings vs. Packers prop bets
Darnold is off to an incredible start to the season. He leads the league in touchdown passes, and he has a four-to-one touchdown to interception ratio thus far.
Yet he's only thrown for more than 210 yards once this season. The Packers are allowing 222.7 passing yards per game this season, and they've been playing with comfortable leads for each of the last two weeks.
In a close contest, I expect the Vikings to be more balanced on offense than previous Packers opponents, which means fewer opportunities for Darnold.
The price for this prop is about the same everywhere, with Caesars offering a slightly better price than the other major sportsbooks. I'd take this as low as 215.
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
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The Vikings are allowing the second-most completions per game this season. The Packers are tied for the second-fewest completions per game. Something has to give in Sunday's matchup.
Whether it's been Willis or Love under center, Reed has consistently been the Packers' No. 1 target. He's yet to catch more than four passes in a game, but he has been targeted six times in two of his three games this season.
With the run game facing a tough test against the Vikings' defense, the Packers will need to rely on short routes that get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. This should mean a lot of designed plays for Reed.
He may not rack up a lot of yardage, but against a defense that allows a lot of completions, he should pull down at least five and cash these odds via bet365.
Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%
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Vikings vs. Packers game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 29
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisc.)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 75 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 11-mph wind
- Favorite: Packers -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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