The UTSA Roadrunners and Marshall Thundering Herd get the college football landscape all to themselves Tuesday as they battle for the Frisco Bowl, and we offer our best UTSA vs. Marshall prediction based on the best college football odds.
UTSA and Marshall are meeting for the fourth time, marking the first encounter since 2018, when the two schools were briefly C-USA foes.
Tulane ended UTSA's quest for a third straight C-USA title by halting its seven-game winning streak with a 29-16 loss in the regular-season finale. This defeat marked UTSA's only conference loss (7-1) throughout the season.
Marshall could never have anticipated the necessity to win its last regular-season game for bowl eligibility, given its 4-0 start. However, after enduring losses in six of the next eight games following a torrid beginning, that was the precise position the team encountered. The Thundering Herd aims for a second-straight bowl victory after securing a 28-14 win over UConn in the Myrtle Beach Bowl last year.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best UTSA vs. Marshall prediction and our college football picks for Tuesday's Frisco Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UTSA vs. Marshall prediction: Frisco Bowl
When it comes to placing wagers on bowl games, which team is the more motivated team is always a key piece of analysis, as three weeks between a team's final regular-season game an d a bowl game is a long time to keep players sharp and focused. That edge should decidedly belong with the Roadrunners, who are 0-4 in their bowl history and should be motivated for their first bowl win in a semi-home environment in Frisco, Texas. And with the point spread ballooning to a number too high to back, we are wagering on the Over on UTSA's team total instead.
UTSA's offense sputtered in last year's 18-12 loss to Troy in the Cure Bowl, getting shut out in the second half. However, the team was put in a precarious spot as star wide receiver Joshua Cephus, who had 985 receiving yards, was charged with DWI and was suspended from the team just a week before the game. Now Cephus is back and coming off a regular season where he totaled 1,049 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, and is a big reason that quarterback Frank Harris broke the school record for total offense this season.
UTSA has a huge edge over Marshall in the trenches, as it ranks fifth in rushing explosiveness, while the Thundering Herd defense is 129th. Thus, UTSA's running back tandem of Kevorian Barnes and Robert Henry, who each averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry, should run wild, especially with the Thundering Herd having to respect Harris' 5.5 yards per carry average and top 32 EPA ranking.
We were tempted to back the Over in this game, but have instead limited our play to just wagering on UTSA's team total due to AAC Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Trey Moore, entering the transfer portal, along with cornerbacks Xavier Spencer and Syrus Dumas' availability in question given their intent to transfer.
This is a four-star play, as we do not expect many sustained drives from a Marshall offense that ranks 110th in Rushing Success Rate, facing a UTSA front that is top 45 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
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UTSA vs. Marshall best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | 33.5 | N/A | N/A | 34 |
| N/A | -111 | N/A | N/A | -105 |
As of this writing, only two sportsbooks offer team totals, and we do not mind paying up slightly at FanDuel to get a team total a half-point lower than the one offered at bet365.
For those expecting UTSA to win outright, given that it is a 13-point favorite, BetMGM has a tempting prop that involves backing the Roadrunners on the moneyline and parlaying that with an alternate total of 48.5 (the actual O/U is 52.5) at a price of -115.
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UTSA vs. Marshall odds
UTSA vs. Marshall odds analysis
FanDuel is the only s hop offering a point spread of UTSA -12.5, as all of our other best sports betting apps are at -13. The spread has moved decidedly in UTSA's favor, as all our top sportsbooks opened as low as -8.5. This movement is likely a reaction to player and portal news as much as it has to do with the betting splits, which are 67/33 in support of the favorites. However, UTSA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
All of our best sportsbooks offer a total of either 52.5 or 53, with BetRivers the only shop differing from those with an O/U of 53.5. Almost all opened much higher at 56.5, while DraftKings was the only shop with a slightly lower opening total (56). UTSA is a profitable Under team this year, cashing it in seven of 11 games, while the Over is 7-0 in Marshall's previous seven games against AAC opponents.
Frisco Bowl game info
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 19 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: 61 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph SSE
UTSA-Marshall prediction made 12/15/2023 at 4:01 p.m. ET.
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