Utah State and Purdue clash for the right to go to the Sweet 16 on Sunday afternoon, and we offer our top Utah State vs. Purdue prediction and best bet based on the best March Madness odds.
After dominating TCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, the No. 8 seed Utah State Aggies (28-6) face the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (30-4) on Sunday in a Round of 32 showdown from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, which is scheduled for 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS).
DraftKings is offering an appealing alternate point spread, and the Boilermakers can cover a spread even larger than the standard 10.5 points at most of our best sports betting sites.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Utah State vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Utah State vs. Purdue odds
Utah State (No. 8) vs. Purdue (No. 1) prediction: Midwest Region
Best odds: +124 via DraftKings
When the brackets came out, many quickly identified that the worst matchup for Purdue in the Round of 32 would have been TCU, based on the Horned Frogs' elite rebounding ability and physicality. However, Utah State took care of TCU in a convincing 88-72 victory on Friday, which sets up a comfortable clash for the Boilermakers in Indianapolis.
Utah State came into the NCAA Tournament ranking only better than Virginia among at-large teams in Bart Torvik's efficiency metrics since the start of February. The Aggies were 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency during that span, and the latter is worrisome when facing a Purdue offense that's been sixth in adjusted offensiv e efficiency since February. The Aggies also don't force turnovers (209th in turnover rate forced), which will allow Purdue's guards to get comfortable in the team's half-court offense.
Utah State came into the tournament with an offense that utilized post rates in the 92nd percentile. But mammoth Zach Edey will negate the team's bread-and-butter, which is using Great Osobor on the block. He ranks 61st in the country in block percentage despite not getting challenged that often at the rim.
Only DraftKings is currently offering alternate lines. And while laying 11.5 points at +105 odds is enticing, we like the value of +124 odds (which would pay out $22.40 on a $10 wager) more to expect the Boilermakers to record a 13-plus-point win. They've gone an impressive 20-4 straight up in Quad 1 and 2 games during 2023-24.
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Utah State vs. Purdue spread & Over/Under analysis
BetRivers is listing Purdue as an 11-point favorite, and all of our other best sportsbooks are offering the Boilermakers at -10.5. The only reported movement thus far is at DraftKings, which lowered a half-point from an opening number of -11. The line appears close to increasing at FanDuel, where bettors are getting charged -120 in juice to back the favorites. Purdue is 18-15-1 against the spread, while Utah State has logged an ATS record of 15-14-3.
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison while offering a total of 148.5. Sharps likely jumped in on the action early, as BetRivers lowered its total from an opening number of 150.5 within the first hour of its release. Elsewhere, DraftKings and bet365 are down a half-point from opening numbers of 149.
The Over has cashed in 20 of Purdue's 29 games following a win, and it's 6-1 during Utah State's seven games as an underdog.
Utah State vs. Purdue game info
- When: Sunday, March 24
- Tip-off: 2:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Ind.
- How to watch: CBS
Utah State-Purdue prediction made 3/23/24 at 8:01 a.m. ET.
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