In one of the more polarizing first-round matchups, the 10th-seeded Utah State Aggies take on the seventh-seeded Missouri Tigers early Thursday afternoon. Read on for our best Utah State vs. Missouri prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
A trip to the Round of 32 and a potential meeting with Arizona is on the line when Utah State and Missouri square off in Sacramento Thursday. First-year head coach Dennis Gates has the Missouri Tigers dancing, but they'd love to secure their first NCAA Tournament win since 2010.
The drought is even longer for Utah State, which hasn't won a tourney game since 2001 and plays in a conference that's struggled in March Madness of late. The Aggies are short favorites as the double-digit seed in this clash between the Mountain West Conference and SEC.
Here is our best Utah Sta te vs. Missouri prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Utah State vs. Missouri odds
Utah State vs. Missouri prediction
With the total sitting at 155, this should be a highly-volatile matchup. Both teams can score in bunches, so there's a very real possibility you can get a better number on either team by waiting to place an in-game wager.
I still expect Missouri to win this game and potentially give Arizona a fight in the Round of 32. The Tigers started the year 12-1, thanks in part to having an athletic advantage in non-conference play. That wasn't as often the case in the SEC, where Missouri still finished 11-7 in league action.
Missouri ranks in the 97th percentile in full-court pressure usage, per Synergy Sports Technology. The Tigers' defensive philosoph y isn't always to force a turnover – though they rank a college basketball 5th in turnover rate – but they mostly want to speed the game up and force opponents out of rhythm.
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Utah State ranks 118th in offensive turnover rate, and lost all three games against a San Diego State squad that also applies a lot of pressure. The Aggies can knock down plenty of shots, as they're an NCAAB 11th in 3-point percentage. Still, it's worth noting the Aggies built most of their resume with home wins, and went 6-5 ATS in road contests.
Thursday's matchup might be a neutral-site ga me, but expect Missouri's athletic advantage and offensive prowess to ultimately prevail in this one.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Utah State vs. Missouri best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
There's a pretty good chance you've heard someone bet and pick Utah State to win this game. The Aggies appear to be pretty popular in this matchup, but it's worth noting the line actually only moved in the Tigers' favor.
I'm sitting on a +2.5 with Missouri from Sunday, but anything +2 or better is worth playing. This line is actually at 1.5 at the rest of our top-rated sportsbooks, so DraftKings gives a deal here.
My confidence is as high as one can be in a toss-up of a NCAA Tournament game, which is why this is a four-star play.
Utah State vs. Missouri odds analysis
Utah State opened as a 2-point favo rite, but the line dropped down to a consensus 1.5 even though most analysts favor the Aggies. The total climbed up to 155 after starting as low as 152.5, suggesting we could be in for a track meet Thursday.
So far this season, the Aggies are 21-12 against the spread and 19-13-1 to the Over. The Tigers are 16-16-1 ATS, but 18-15 to the Over.
Utah State vs. Missouri game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 1:40 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Missouri-Utah State pick made 3/14/2023 at 1:02 p.m. ET.
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