The team that will represent the United States in this year's FIBA World Cup will look far different than the squad that will be clad in red, white, and blue at the 2024 Olympics.
There will be no all-NBA players on the floor when the U.S. takes on New Zealand in Saturday's World Cup opener in the Philippines, yet the Americans are still favored to win that game by 36.5 points (all odds courtesy of Betfred) and are -125 favorites to topple the entire field.
Team Canada actually has an all-NBA first-teamer on its roster in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but he'll be asked to carry an enormous offensive load due to countryman Jamal Murray's recently announced decision to sit the tournament out. As a result, Canada is Betfred's third pick to win the World Cup at odds of +950.
“Canada's weakest attribute is their playmaking ability,” Betfred trader Mitchell Mundie told . “You look the depth of Team USA, completely stacked with primary and secondary ballhandlers, from Jalen Brunson all the way to Brandon Ingram. The success of Canada is too heavily weighted on the shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who dealt with a knee injury in the 2022 NBA season. '
“Canada will look to their youth in R.J. Barrett, Lu Dort, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to help SGA create scoring chances. Betfred would be lowering the odds to +750 to win the tournament if Murray was expected to start alongside SGA.”
Even with the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Damian Lillard watching from home, Team USA's de facto junior varsity squad is a worthy favorite to win the World Cup. Anthony Edwards has emerged as the team's offensive centerpiece, with Mikal Bridges and NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. stifling opponents on the other end.
But it's anyone's guess as to whether they'll be on the roster when the Olympic torch is lit next year.
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“There are only a couple players on this squad that would potentially be a part of the 2024 Olympic roster,” said Mundie. “Anthony Edwards would be a prime candidate for the Olympics, but at age 22, the team may look to a player further along in their NBA career.”
Will athleticism trump camaraderie?
Sandwiched between the U.S. and Canada among the favorites to win the World Cup is France, which upset the U.S. in group play at the 2020 Olympics and has accomplished NBA players like Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, and Evan Fournier on its roster.
It just so happens that Canada and France will face each other in Game One of group play on Friday, with France a 1.5-point favorite. But despite boasting better odds than Canada to win a head-to-head matchup and the tournament at large, the Canadians are slight favorites (-120 to France's -102) to finish first in Group H, where Latvia (50/1 to win the group) and Lebanon (100/1) round out the quartet.
“Canada has a more athletic and more talented squad than France, without a doubt,” said Mundie. “The elite NBA talent on the Canadian national team will keep them as favorites to win the group. However, the emphasis on team defense and ball movement in the World Cup is where France can find an advantage.'
“The French players, led by one of the best team defenders in all of basketball in Rudy Gobert, have more camaraderie and will likely have a game plan to keep the game at their favorable slower pace. The discrepancy lies in the sense that Canada will have to match the focus and intensity of France to win this matchup. But overall, Canada is less likely to drop a game to another team in the group.”
In terms of betting trends, Mundie said he was surprised to see bettors back Australia so strongly to win Group E, where the Aussies are -128 favorites over Germany (+138).'
“We expected more action on Germany this year with the additions of the Wagner brothers (Franz and Moritz, both of whom play for the NBA's Orlando Magic) and the return of their leader, Dennis Schroder (now with the Toronto Raptors).”
Despite boasting just one NBA player (Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic), Montenegro is a very live +310 contender to upset favored Lithuania (-350) in Group D.
“Vucevic will have an exciting matchup against Jonas Valanciunias of the New Orleans Pelicans on Lithuania,” said Mundie. “The scoring abilities of Ignas Brazdeikis and Deividas Sirvydis will be on display for Lithuania, giving them an edge, but the public likes the value in Montenegro at +310.”