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When you look up David vs. Goliath, don't be surprised to see Emma Hayes' USA and Bruce Mwape's Zambia displayed.
The United States enter Thursday's Group B women's Olympics soccer opener against Zambia as the behemoth favorites across our best sports betting sites to take all three points. The USA are also the favorites to win their first gold medal since 2012.
The 2024 Olympics represent Zambia's first appearance at the women's soccer tournament, showcasing the disparity between the two nations' programs, at least on paper. Although Hayes hasn't had much time to impress her philosophy upon her team, our USA vs. Zambia predictions follow the lopsided narrative.
Hayes was hired in November but didn't take the helm until May after completing her duties with Chelsea.
The United States are on a nine-match unbeaten run entering the tournament, while Zambia enter undefeated in two after tying New Zealand 1-1 and beating Morocco 2-0.
Thursday's match from Nice, France (3 p.m. ET) marks the first head-to-head between the teams.
USA vs. Zambia predictions for Thursday
USA vs. Zambia odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Final score: USA 4 – Zambia 0 (+600) ???
- Lindsey Horan anytime goal scorer (-105) ?????
- Best bet: Over 3.5 goals (-136) ?????
USA vs. Zambia score prediction
The USA must make an impression and set a high bar against Zambia in their Group B opener. Germany and Australia, the other Group B combatants, are ranked fifth and 12th in the world, respectively, potentially making each goal ca rry additional weight if tiebreakers are required.
The United States should have no problem advancing to the quarterfinal, and this contest is ripe for the taking. Zambia have a few world-class players, including Barbra Banda, the Orlando Pride striker who has 53 goals in 60 international matches.
However, aside from her goal-scoring prowess, the Zambians can't match Hayes' team in any facet, including experience.
The USA beat South Korea 4-0 and 3-0 in recent friendlies, and despite a bitterly disappointing 0-0 draw vs. Costa Rica on July 16, I expect Thursday's encounter to follow a similar script. The +600 odds will pay a profit of $60 on a $10 winning bet.
Odds: +600 | Implied probability: 14.29%
USA vs. Zambia anytime goal scorer prediction
While there are more probable goal scorers, including Sophia Smith, Mallory Swanson, and Lynn Williams, Lindsey Horan offers the best value. Team USA will go as far as Horan takes them. The captain, Horan, scored two goals in four matches at the World Cup in 2023. She also scored a goal in the 2020 Olympics.
Horan should have more space in the middle of the park against an inferior Zambian defense, allowing her to drive forward. Zambia will also likely play a deep line in an attempt to nullify space behind their rearguard. Again, that should open things up for Horan, who has a piercing shot from distance.
The -105 odds will pay a profit of $9.52 if she gets on the scoresheet.
Odds: -105 | Implied probability: 51.22%
USA vs. Zambia best bet
I was wavering between a 3-0 and a 4-0 final score but settled on the latter. Zambia have gradually improved since their first international tournament in 2021, even qualifying for World Cup 2023. Spain and Japan demolished them 5-0 in the group stage of that tournament before they secured a consolation victory over Costa Rica.
Their lack of exp erience at the top level will ultimately be telling in this one, as the USA are seasoned across the pitch, with all of their players plying their trade in elite leagues. I expect Zambia to be stubborn initially. However, that resistance should wane once the Americans open the scoring.
Hayes' first major tournament match at the helm should also inspire and galvanize the United States, leading to a comprehensive 4-0 victory. The -136 odds will pay a $7.35 profit on a $10 wager if there are at least four goals.
Odds: -136 | Implied probability: 57.63%
USA vs. Zambia odds & game info
| Host | Visitor | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -3000 | +5000 |
| Over/Under | Over 3.5 (-136) | Under 3.5 (+108) |
| Spread | -1.5 (-550) | +1.5 (+390) |
- When: Thursday, July 25
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Stade de Nice, Nice, France
- How to watch: CBC Gem (Canada), USA Network, Peacock (US)
- Favorite: USA (-3000)
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