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The path to a fifth straight gold medal begins Sunday for Team USA, which headlines our USA vs. Serbia prediction ahead of their official tournament opener at 11:15 a.m. ET on NBC.
The Americans are the overwhelming favorites by the men's Olympic basketball odds, and we highlighted some of the top U.S. stars in our men's Olympic basketball predictions earlier this week.
Still, don't sleep on Serbia and star center Nikola Jokic – the preseason NBA MVP odds favorite and reigning award winner – who should make his presense felt on Sunday against many of his NBA contemporaries.
USA vs. Serbia predictions for Sunday
USA vs. Serbia odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- USA -12.5 (-110) ????
- Anthony Davis Over 1.5 blocks (-110) ????
- LeBron James to lead all players in assists (+250) ???
The Americans haven't exactly put on a show ahead of this tournament, as they narrowly survived exhibition tests against South Sudan and Germany – much to the dismay of coach Steve Kerr, who lit into his team's effort after those wins.
I'd expect a much more fiery group for this opener. The U.S. surely won't take Serbia lightly with Jokic on the court, but I don't have a ton of confidence in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Vasilije Micic, and Co. keeping pace with the embarrassment of riches that the Americans have in tow.
Keep an eye on how Kerr handles Jokic down low. With Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis at his disposal defensively, the U.S. coach should have plenty of options to keep the Serbians at bay.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
You can only take so much from exhibition, but Davis swatted six shots in just 16 minutes against Serbia back on July 17. And I'd be shocked if he finishes without multiple blocks on Sunday.
Davis averaged three blocks in five games in exhibition play, and his 17.6 minutes per game were tied for sixth-most on the team – even more than fellow center Embiid (16.6 MPG). That doesn't mean he'll see more time than the former MVP, but I do expect him to be a featured part of the USA gameplan in this tournament.
If he's on the court, he'll be blocking shots with reckless abandon, especially with the benefit of international rules. This might be the last time we see a total this low for The Brow, so take advantage.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
James and Jokic have the same assists total (5.5) at some of our best sportsbooks, but the latter is dealing as the clear favori te in this market.
I'm not so sure that should be the case. The last thing Team USA wants is to give Jokic easy passing lanes to open 3-point shooters, so I fully expect Kerr to let his defensive stars handle Jokic in the post while everyone else remains disciplined around the perimeter.
Conversely, the U.S. has too much talent to ignore when its starters are on the court, and James has been a maestro in exhibition play, leading the Americans with 3.6 assists in 20.4 minutes per game.
Given the low assist totals in general in these 40-minute contests, I love these +250 odds paying a $25 profit on a $10 wager.
Odds: +250 | Implied probability: 28.57%
USA vs. Serbia odds & game info
| USA | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -750 | +500 |
| Spread | -12.5 (-110) | +12.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 180.5 (-120) | Under 180.5 (+100) |
- When: Sunday, July 28
- Tip-off: 11:15 a.m. ET
- Where: Stade Pierre Mauroy (Lille, France)
- How to watch: NBC
- Favorite: USA -12.5 (-110)
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