The United States earned a 1-0 win over Iran thanks to a first half goal by Christian Pulisic.
That means the Americans get to play Netherlands on Saturday with a spot in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals on the line.
What are the USA’s chances of advancing? My World Cup simulations can give us an idea.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague'BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called'diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson'to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.