In most daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or, for this article, the ice. I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine.
It proved to be a very fruitful exercise in the 2022-23 season and has continued in the early part of this season, as you’ll see below as I unveil five different NHL Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I will explain, and should get stronger as the season wears on and fatigue/routine becomes a bigger issue. As a bonus, I reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 371-362 for +51.5 units of profit (7.0% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season, so long as the home opponent wasn’t on extended rest (3+ Days). So far this season (through Thursday, 11/16), they are 51-56 for +2.01 units.
Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, and then plays the following day again. This remains a very strong spot for road teams. For the record, the home teams going against the road teams in this one-day rest scenario have lost 144.94 units since the start of last season.
Upcoming games for system #1 (Road team is listed first in the matchup)
Saturday, November 18, 2023
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES – One Day
WINNIPEG JETS – H2H b2b
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES – Two Days
NEW YORK ISLANDERS – One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES – One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS – One Day
Sunday, November 19, 2023
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – One Day
MINNESOTA WILD – A2A b2b
BUFFALO SABRES – One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – A2H b2b
Monday, November 20, 2023
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS – Two Days
BOSTON BRUINS – One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
DALLAS STARS – One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE – One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS – One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES – One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – One Day
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
BOSTON BRUINS – One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS – One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Two Days
CALGARY FLAMES – One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE – One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – One Day
Friday, November 24, 2023
DETROIT RED WINGS – One Day
BOSTON BRUINS – One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS – One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES – One Day
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS – One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS – One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS – One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – One Day
BUFFALO SABRES – One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES – One Day
WINNIPEG JETS – One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS – One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – One Day
DALLAS STARS – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – One Day
Sunday, November 26, 2023
MINNESOTA WILD – One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS – One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES – One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES – One Day
WINNIPEG JETS – One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
Monday, November 27, 2023
BOSTON BRUINS – One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – A2H b2b
BUFFALO SABRES – One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS- One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – One Day
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
CAROLINA HURRICANES – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES – One Day
MINNESOTA WILD – One Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Two Days
Thursday, November 30, 2023
NEW YORK ISLANDERS – One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES – One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS – A2H b2b
FLORIDA PANTHERS – One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS – A2H b2b
NEW JERSEY DEVILS – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – One Day
MINNESOTA WILD – One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
WINNIPEG JETS – One Day
DALLAS STARS – One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – Two Days
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 164-124 for +17.8 units of profit (6.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team not in that scenario. In 2023-24, they have gone 22-20 for -1.97 units.
Steve’s thoughts: While 17.8 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.2% aren’t earth-shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall last season. So far this season, through Thursday, November 16, hosts in all other scenarios have lost 14.57 units. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.
Upcoming games for system #2 (Home team is listed second in the matchup)
Friday, November 17, 2023
FLORIDA PANTHERS – A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
Saturday, November 18, 2023
MINNESOTA WILD – 3+ Days
OTTAWA SENATORS- One Day
EDMONTON OILERS – Two Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS – 3+ Days
NEW JERSEY DEVILS – One Day
Sunday, November 19, 2023
ST. LOUIS BLUES – A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
Monday, November 20, 2023
SAN JOSE SHARKS – 3+ Days
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – One Day
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
WINNIPEG JETS – 3+ Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES – Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES – One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Two Days
DALLAS STARS – One Day
Friday, November 24, 2023
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – 3+ Days
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS – 3+Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
Monday, November 27, 2023
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Two Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE – One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Two Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS – One Day
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Two Days
NASHVILLE PREDATORS – One Day
DALLAS STARS – 3+ Days
WINNIPEG JETS – One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN – 3+ Days
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – A2A b2b
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
MONTREAL CANADIENS – 3+ Days
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS – Two Days
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
Thursday, November 30, 2023
BUFFALO SABRES – Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES – One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE – Two Days
ARIZONA COYOTES – One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS – A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
Strangely, NHL home teams playing on two days rest game scenario were just 142-141 for -56.93 units of loss (-20.1% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season. Through Thursday, November 16, they have gone 41-32 for -0.3 units.
Steve’s thoughts: This system shows how just a slight altering of routine can affect a team, even at home. It’s not often in any sport in which bettors can fade such a simple system as this that shows a full-season loss of over 20% R.O.I. Often, these home teams are overpriced a touch because of the extra rest when, in fact, that factor is actually not advantageous.
Upcoming games for system #3 (Play against home teams listed second in matchup)
Friday, November 17, 2023
BUFFALO SABRES – Two Days
WINNIPEG JETS – Two Days
Saturday, November 18, 2023
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Two Days
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES – Two Days
Monday, November 20, 2023
EDMONTON OILERS – One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS – Two Days
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – Two Days
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – Two Days
NEW YORK RANGERS – One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Two Days
MONTREAL CANADIENS – 3+Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS – Two Days
Saturday, November 25, 2023
ARIZONA COYOTES – Two Days
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Two Days
Monday, November 27, 2023
FLORIDA PANTHERS – Two Days
OTTAWA SENATORS – Two Days
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Two Days
NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Two Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES – One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Two Days
FLORIDA PANTHERS – A2A b2b
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – Two Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – A2A b2b
ARIZONA COYOTES – Two Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS – One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Two Days
Thursday, November 30, 2023
SAN JOSE SHARKS – Two Days
BOSTON BRUINS – Two Days
DALLAS STARS – One Day
CALGARY FLAMES – Two Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario are 15-9 for +5.8 units of profit (24.2% R.O.I.) since the start of the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team that played the prior day at home.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there are travel advantages associated with this one. Playing at home on the second of back-to-back games is a lot more comfortable for players than having to travel late the night before and arrive in a road city in a rushed fashion. This system doesn’t occur that often, so be sure to jump on them when they arise, as 24.2% ROI is not something to miss.
Upcoming games for system #4 (Home teams are listed second in the matchup)
Saturday, November 25, 2023
BOSTON BRUINS – H2A b2b
NEW YORK RANGERS – A2H b2b
BUFFALO SABRES – H2A b2b
NEW JERSEY DEVILS – H2H b2b
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – H2A b2b
NEW YORK ISLANDERS – A2H b2b
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5
In all other second games of a back-to-back scenario besides those described in system #4, NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario are just 52-66 for -34.24 units of loss (-29% R.O.I.) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
Steve’s thoughts: The reasons for this ugly system on home teams stem from nothing more than fatigue. There is a reason that back-to-back scenarios are such a major focus when the NHL schedule for the upcoming season is released in early summer each year. The fatigue factor outweighs any type of home ice advantage. On top of that, most teams in back-to-back scenarios turn to their #2 or #2 goalies for that contest.
Upcoming games for system #5 (FADE ALL HOME TEAMS listed second in the matchup)
Friday, November 17, 2023
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS – 3+Days
DETROIT RED WINGS – A2A b2b
Saturday, November 18, 2023
ARIZONA COYOTES – One Day
WINNIPEG JETS – H2H b2b
Sunday, November 19, 2023
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – A2A b2b
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – H2H b2b