When I last left off with you on my College Football Best Bets, I covered the earliest set of bowl games going through Friday, December 22nd. I put together a nice start to the bowl season by going 5-3-1 ATS, with one of the losses coming from Old Dominion in one of the craziest bad beats I’ve experienced in quite a while. I will now be offering up my opinions below on some of the “middle” bowl games, those played between Saturday, December 23 and Thursday, December 28. I’ll warn you in advance, after studying the games relentlessly over the last few weeks, I like almost all of them. Here they are:
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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2023
Duke vs. Troy
76 Birmingham Bowl
Troy enjoyed a second straight fabulous regular season, capped off by winning the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Trojans are a regular fixture in bowl games annually, but this year will mark the first time that they get to prove themselves against a Power 5 foe in a bowl contest.
Oddsmakers have them as TD favorites, and you can be sure they will be anxious to prove that line valid. This particular bowl series has been one dominated by favorites, as they are on a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS surge in the last 10 years of the Birmingham Bowl. Troy has also been one of the country’s top-performing teams in bowl games of late, winning its last five outright while going 5-1 ATS in the last six.
This feels like a game where a team that has had two great years in a row gets to prove itself on a bigger stage against a team without its starting QB, head coach, and several other key pieces.
Let’s lay the 7-points with Troy (+/- 1.5)
James Madison vs. Air Force
Armed Forces Bowl
My original lean in this game was to James Madison, as I thought they were a team that would be anxious to prove themselves. However, after losing their head coach, and facing a military team that never lacks discipline, I am going the other way.
Head Coach Troy Calhoun seems to always have his team ready for bowl games as they are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10, having won their last four. This is also one of the biggest coaching experience mismatches on the 2023 bowl schedule, and if I must remind you from my Motivational Factors piece, there are several strong betting systems that deal with that variable.
First, when matched up against an opposing coach that has been in at least 10 bowl games, the rookie record over the last eight years slips to an abysmal 7-17 SU and 5-19 ATS (20.8%)! Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%). I think the month off will have given the Falcons a nice chance to regroup after a rough finish.
Let’s go Air Force +1.5, with some ML action too
Georgia State vs. Utah State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
We have some massive line movement in the Georgia State-Utah State matchup, and it would figure to favor the Aggies, who will be enjoying a nice regional edge as well. Utah State went from +3.5 at opening to -2.5 at last check. Recall that in bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
Speaking more of the regional edge, Mountain West teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five Famous Idaho Potato Bowl games, as this is a good chance to impress the league’s local fans. Finally, from a statistical perspective, Utah State averages about 10.3 PPG more than their opponents allowed this season typically. Doing the math and seeing that Georgia State allows 30.8 PPG, that would put the Aggies on pace for 41 points. Considering that outright winners are on a 24-2 ATS surge in this bowl series, I’ll be happy to take a team I think might get 40.
Let’s lay the 2.5-points with Utah State (+/- 1)
Utah vs. Northwestern
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
You’d have to think that one of the teams most excited to be playing in a bowl game this season would be Northwestern, especially since the Wildcats dealt with a ton of offseason turmoil regarding former head coach Pat Fitzgerald, and that following a 1-11 campaign in 2022.
The turnaround is remarkable and sets up new head coach David Braun’s team for a nice bowl betting system: Teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 34-12-2 ATS (73.9%) over the last eight bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. Last year these teams were 5-2-1 ATS.
Northwestern was also very hot down the stretch, posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark down in the last six games. In terms of bowl matchup trends, Big Ten teams are on a run of 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS vs. Pac-12 teams in bowl games, and Pac-12 teams are 20-29 SU and 16-33 ATS in their last 49 bowl games versus Power 5 conference foes.
Finally, once formidable Kyle Whittingham (Utah) has lost four straight bowl games (1-3 ATS) after going 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS prior. They have gotten accustomed to playing in bigger bowl games as well recently, I can’t imagine this clash with Northwestern in the Las Vegas Bowl will stoke the Utes’ fire.
Let’s take the 7-points with Northwestern (+/-1)
Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State
Hawai'i Bowl
San Jose State rather quietly became one of the hottest teams in all of college football down the stretch, winning its last six games while going 5-1 ATS following a 1-5 start. After reeling early, the Spartans' offense exploded for 38.7 PPG in the winning streak, led, of course, by starting QB Chevan Cordeiro.
Not only will this team be jacked to wrap up this amazing finish in fine fashion, but Cordeiro has the added motivation of getting to play his final collegiate game where it all began in Hawaii. The Honolulu native played his first four college seasons at the University of Hawaii, who plays its home games at the same facility as the Hawaii Bowl.
This game also marks the third bowl game for SJSU coach Brent Brennan, while CCU’s Tim Beck coaches his first. That, of course, means another play on this system: First-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 33-51 SU and 32-51-1 ATS (38.6%) vs. non-first-year coaches. This is a pretty big number, but I think it's valid.
Let’s go San Jose State -9.5 (+/- 1.5)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2023
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota
Quick Lane Bowl
Bowling Green was pretty excited last year to play in the Quick Lane Bowl, having come off a six-year stretch in which it won a total of 16 games. The Falcons may have been a bit starry-eyed from the experience, as they eventually lost 24-19 to New Mexico State despite being favored. Well, how many teams get the chance for a do-over?
BGSU plays in this bowl game for a second straight season and gets the added motivation of taking on Minnesota. And the Golden Gophers represent the Big Ten Conference, the league every Group of 5 team in the Midwest looks up to. Head coach PJ Fleck’s team lost its last four games and finished under-.500 but became bowl-eligible as the highest-rated 5-7 team. My Power Rating for the Gophers dropped 10 points over the course of the season.
This bowl series has also seen underdogs own an 8-7 SU and 10-4-1 ATS edge in the last 15 games. If all that’s not enough, this is one of the more defined hot versus not bowl games this season, as BGSU won five of the last games SU and ATS to reach a bowl game, and Minnesota backed into bowl season by losing its last four games SU and ATS.
Let’s take the 3.5-points with Bowling Green (+/-1)
Texas State vs. Rice
First Responder Bowl
Texas State was one of the country’s most active teams in the transfer portal this season and basically rebuilt itself under first-year head coach GJ Kinne following a string of eight straight seasons with four or fewer wins. Led by Auburn transfer QB TJ Finley, the Bobcats put up big numbers offensively, scoring 38 PPG, an improvement of nearly 17 PPG over ’22.
For the First Responders Bowl, TSU gets a chance to wrap it all up in fine fashion against a Rice team that put up some good offensive numbers itself this season, mostly through the air, but will be without its starting QB JT Daniels. The Bobcats are making a first-ever bowl appearance, and we should all know the motivation that comes with that.
I also have some nice trends that were posted in articles I released the first week after bowl games were announced. Firsts, favorites are a perfect 10-0 SU in the First Responders Bowl series, going 6-2-2 ATS. Next, in the last 37 bowl games featuring a team from the American Athletic Conference, favorites are 25-12 ATS, including 14-3 when it’s a matchup versus a fellow Group of 5 conference foe.
I’ll lay the 5.5 points (+/-1.5) with bowl newcomer Texas State
Kansas vs. UNLV
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
UNLV was one of the country’s most pleasant surprises in 2023, coming together for a 9-4 season under new head coach Barry Odom. The Runnin’ Rebels even appeared in their first Mountain West title game. They topped the 30-point mark nine times, proving they could score on just about everyone. Now, Odom’s team finds itself as a huge double-digit underdog to a Kansas team that hasn’t won a bowl game since ’08.
The Jayhawks are growing as a program, and winning a bowl game would seem to be the next natural step. Covering this big of a number probably isn’t on the list of Guaranteed Rate Bowl goals. There are also a few interesting Mountain West bowl trends that catch my eye: MWC teams have thrived in bowl games with double-digit point spreads, 17-8 ATS since 2005, and they have proven to be very competitive in the large underdog role, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when catching 7-points or more.
Finally, against Power 5 conference foes overall in bowl games, Mountain West teams are on a five-game SU and ATS winning streak, plus are 25-14 ATS since 2000. This looks like a nice proving ground for a team that has played under the radar all year.
Let’s take the 12.5 points with UNLV (+/-1.5) in what figures to be an Over play as well