UNCW vs. Charleston Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 3-7-2023
UNCW vs. Charleston Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 3-7-2023

While it required overtime, the UNC Wilmington Seahawks (24-9, 16-13-2 ATS, 12-6 CAA) once again won and beat the spread to punch their ticket to the CAA Championship game. They will be facing the Charleston Cougars (30-3, 19-12-1 ATS, 16-2 CAA), with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line. When these teams faced each other in the regular season, Charleston won both times. The first came down to the wire, and the second was a blowout. That's irrelevant now though, as whoever wins these 40 minutes will punch their ticket to the Big Dance and still have national title hopes. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, the CAA Tournament will wrap up and crown a champion. For the final time, Entertainment & Sports Arena in D.C. will be the stage for these two schools.

Maybe the Seahawks are built for March. KenPom's 166th-rated team, UNC Wilmington is now a pristine 5-0 on neutral floors this season, and neutral courts are guaranteed to await them the rest of the way if they keep winning. Of course, at this point of the season, it's one game at a time. 

Their upset over the CAA's top seed, Hofstra, was a display of the Seahawks' defensive dominance this season. They held a lethal offense to 39.7% shooting from the floor. UNC Wilmington was also +12 on the glass. Trazarien White's 21-point, 11-rebound double-double was crucial to securing the win. 

When the season ended, UNC Wilmington was second in the CAA, holding teams to 64.0 points per game. Their three-point defense was among the top-25 teams in the nation by limiting opponents to 30.4% from deep. Overall, opposing teams shot 43.0% against the Seahawks this season. Their defense is capable of carrying them very far, as evidenced by Monday night. 

On the other end of the floor, the Seahawks performed like the team they were most of the season. They shot 44.8% on Monday compared to 44.2% for the season. The Seahawks attempted 27 free throws against Hofstra and hit 20, a 74.1% rate. This year they usually took 20.6 trips and knocked down 72.6%. Three-point shooting isn't a strength, as they shot 33.8% from distance this season. UNC Wilmington's offense is capable, but not the strength of the squad. 

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