Monday’s College Football Playoff national title game between TCU and Georgia is one of the most unusual matchups the playoff system has produced, as it pits an ultimate underdog against a prohibitive favorite.
The Horned Frogs were predicted to be, at best, the seventh-place place Big 12 team after their 5-7 season in 2021 and were listed as 200-1 shots for a college football title back in August. The Bulldogs meanwhile, were the defending national champs and were expected to be here, listed at 4-1, behind just Alabama and Ohio State at the season’s start.
The odds for the game reflect the disparity of the teams’ preseason expectations as well, showing Georgia as a 13-point favorite with a total of 62.5, according to DraftKings. Let’s take a quick look at some of the key trends I uncovered regarding the matchup, including some angles derived from recent national championship game contests.
— Big 12 dogs catching more than 9 points in bowl games are on a 14-5 ATS run.