In a game featuring two bottom feeders in college football, the New Mexico State Aggies will welcome the UMass Minutemen to town for a Week 0 battle on Saturday as we offer our UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction based on the best college football odds.
The beauty of college football is that we are all going to care about a matchup between New Mexico State and UMass come Saturday evening, despite both programs being ranked among the worst in the sport via most power ratings entering the 2023 season.
Or maybe we only care because this game will be broadcast on ESPN to highlight the Week 0 slate, while USC vs. San Jose State is inexplicably relegated to Pac-12 Network.
In fairness, this game could actually be competitive with the spread trading around a touchdown at our best sports betting apps.
UMass has won just four games in the last four years, but a pair of offensive transfers have given the program some hope that it won't be ranked 133rd among 133 teams this year. New Mexico State used to be on that same level before head coach Jerry Kill led the Aggies to a 7-6 campaign last year.
New Mexico State has defeated UMass in each of the last two years, but will the streak continue?
Here is our best UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football picks (odds via our
best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UMass vs. New Mexico State prediction: Week 0
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After that intro, you will be surprised to learn that we think this game will be pretty entertaining. Both offenses should be better than expected in a game where I make the total around 48.
That means we recommend placing an Over bet on this Week 0 showdown.
We are getting a discounted total based on what these teams did last year, including when they met on Oct. 29 during New Mexico State's 2 3-13 victory. But there is reason to believe both offenses will be better this time around.
The Aggies bring back nine offensive starters, including quarterback Diego Pavia, as they begin their tenure in the Conference USA. The Aggies went 6-1 and averaged about 35 points per game during the back half of their 2022 campaign, which coincided with Pavia taking over the starting job.
As for the Minutemen, they brought in Taisun Phommachanh via the transfer portal, and he's slated to start this weekend. Phommachanh, who began his collegiate career at Clemson, was once considered the No. 3 quarterback in his class by 247Sports. His top target will likely be receiver Mark Pope, who played 34 games at Miami before transferring to Jackson State last year.
SP+ is projecting a 27-20 win for New Mexico State, which could make for a thrilling finish. More importantly, we are banking on our O ver ticket being cashed before the final buzzer.
UMass vs. New Mexico State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 45 | Over 44.5 | Over 44.5 | Over 45 | Over 45 |
| -110 | -115 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
Our best sports betting sites have pushed this total up to about 45 after opening a couple points lower. FanDuel and BetMGM are currently offering an outlier line of 44.5, so we suggest taking advantage of their discounted number, as getting below 45 is crucial in this case.
That said, there are other ways to bet on points in this matchup. FanDuel's first-quarter total of 9.5 is worth a look, with the Over priced at -112. DraftKings offers +135 odds on both teams to score 20-plus points for those looking for a plus-money avenue.
All options are on the table in a game that we anticipate will be better than expected.
UMass vs. New Mexico State odds
UMass vs. New Mexico State odds analysis
The best sportsbooks have been taking p lenty of action on the Minutemen since releasing the lines over the summer. At Caesars, the spread opened as high as 9.5 before dropping below a touchdown across the board.
The total has also climbed up from as low as 42 to a consensus line of 45 as of this writing.
UMass vs. New Mexico State game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 26, 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 91 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds
UMass-NMSU pick made on 08/23/2023 at 5 p.m. ET.
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