Check out our UFC Vegas 81 best bets for the Saturday event at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, which streams on ESPN+.
UFC Vegas 81 features 11 bouts in all, including a featherweight main event of Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza. The event kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with main-card action starting at 7 p.m. ET.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday's ESPN+ fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Irina Alekseeva vs. Melissa Dixon
Under the current UFC model, less-proven fighters rarely make their way onto the main roster without “earning” a contract on the Contender Series feeder shows. Still, both fighters in this matchup are exceptions to the pathway that has become the UFC's pref erred pipeline for cheap talent.
Alekseeva, a 33-year-old Russian with six professional bouts, scored a first-round win via kneebar over UFC veteran Stephanie Egger as a +280 underdog in April. She missed weight, however – coming in four pounds over the bantamweight limit – but tipped the scales at 135 pounds on Friday for UFC Vegas 81 on Saturday.
Nicknamed “Russian Rousey,” Alekseeva does her best work on the mat; she's an opportunistic submission grappler with solid ground and pound if she can put opponents flat on their backs.
Still, Dixon, a 32-year-old undefeated Brit with nearly double the experience when including her amateur career, may be the better overall grappler in the matchup. She prefers to rack up control time against opponents – both on the mat and up against the fence – and will look to pace Alekseeva while mixing her striking and grappling.
The bout is close to a pick'em to reach a decision – below the divisional averag e of 60% (-150 implied odds). However, I view Dixon as the superior minute-winner, and a more extended fight should favor her chances. Her game is more coherent and less reliant on securing a finish.
And I expect Dixon to win this fight more than 60% of the time (projected -161); bet her moneyline up to -150 or include it in a parlay. Consider using Dixon's decision prop (projected +149, listed +215 at BetRivers) as a round-robin leg too.
The Pick: Melissa Dixon (-140 at BetMGM)