The UFC's historic event features a star-studded card with three title fights and a compelling clash of lightweight contenders at Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena this Saturday, and our UFC 300 predictions are based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.
Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight crown for the first time against Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300, with the latter returning to action after vacating the throne last summer. The pay-per-view portion of the evening gets underway at 10 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
Moments prior to the UFC's tricentennial closer, Weili Zhang will put her strawweight strap on the line against fellow Chinese native and winner of two straight Yan Xiaonan. Also, Justin Gaethje welcomes ex-featherweight champ Max Holloway back to lightweight in a BMF title bout.
Before that trio of championship fights, former lightweight titleholder Charles Oliveira will vie for another shot at the divisional strap against a streaking Arman Tsarukyan, who heads to Vegas with three straight wins.
To complement our Pereira-Hill prediction, Gaethje-Holloway prediction, and UFC 300 odds, here are our UFC picks and predictions for Saturday's UFC 300 (odds via our best sports betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UFC 300 predictions & picks
- Gaethje by KO/TKO vs. Holloway (+150 via DraftKings) ????
- Figueiredo by KO/TKO or submission vs. Garbrandt (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- Yusuff ML vs. Lopes (+125 via bet365) ???
- Zhang vs. Xiaonan Under 3.5 Rounds (+115 via bet365) ????
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Top UFC picks for UFC 300
Best odds: +150 via DraftKings
Holloway's chin and volume striking have made him a luminary at 145 pounds. But his greatest weapons weren't enough in 2019 during the fighter's dalliance at lightweight, as Dustin Poirier landed the harder shots while rocking him multiple times to claim a decision.
I expect much of the same to go down against Gaethje on fight night, only the full 25 minutes won't be required.
While both Gaethje and Holloway land a gaudy seven significant strikes per minute, the former packs the far greater wallop in his mitts and boasts nasty low kicks, a tool many have used with notable success against Holloway before.
I see Gaethje doing what Poirier couldn't and handing Holloway his first KO/TKO loss, with DraftKings offering that line at a tempting +150. A $10 wager would lead to a $15 profit, with a 40% implied probability.
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Best odds: -105 via DraftKings
Double chance bets can be a great way to cover your bases and still find respectable value, and -105 on an 18th stoppage victory for a heavy favorite in Deiveson Figueiredo fits the bill.
With nine career KO/TKO victories and eight submissions, Figueiredo can finish both on his feet and the mat. His opponent on Saturday has folded to strikes in four of five losses and won only three of his last eight. That's why I like the Brazilian's chances of adding to his stoppage total.
Whether he batters a gun-shy Cody Garbrandt with a salvo of fists and elbows or treats him to a classic club-and-sub, Figueiredo shouldn't need three stanzas to make it two in a row at bantamweight.
A $10 wager at -105 leads to $9.52 in profit and implied odds of 51.2%.
Best odds: +125 via bet365
Diego Lopes has become synonymous with appointment viewing in just three UFC bouts, but I suspect he'll fall to a more methodical opponent in Sodiq Yusuff based on his 2023 loss to Movsar Evloev.
The Russian remained stoic and measured while Lopes threw everything and the kitchen sink at him en route to a decision victory. Yusuff has similarly proven he can stick to a game plan for three solid rounds in his trio of UFC wins on points. I see him finding the timing on his counters as Lopes presses forward and earning the judges' verdict with another cerebral showing.
bet365 leads the pack on an upset for this fascinating matchup with +125 odds, which translates to a $12.50 win on a $10 bet at 44.4% implied odds. If you're banking on Yusuff to take Lopes the distance for a seventh career win by decision, a victory on points for the Nigerian is a solid +300 through DraftKings.
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Best odds: +115 via bet365
Carla Esparza drafted the blueprint to beating Xiaonan back in 2021, and I expect Zhang to replicate it once the cage door shuts for Saturday's co-headliner.
The former champ dispatched Xiaonan in under two rounds with repeated takedowns and ground-and-pound. If Xiaonan's speed poses a problem for Zhang, expect the latter to do the same as Esparza, as she's scored multiple takedowns in recent matchups with Amanda Lemos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Rose Namajunas. Not only can Zhang fight on her feet and grind on the mat, she's also a fearsome finisher, with all 19 of her career stoppages coming within 3.5 rounds.
That makes the Under on this matchup the most tempting, as I see Zhang riding her wrestling to wearing Xiaonan out before finishing her off with a nasty submission or some ground-and-pound.
UFC best bets made 4/13/24 at 12:10 a.m. ET.
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