The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi with a bill headlined by a pair of short-notice yet compelling bookings, and we've got our best bets for Saturday's UFC 294 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Alexander Volkanovski has stepped in for the main event to challenge lightweight king Islam Makhachev for a second time after his original opponent, Charles Oliveira, sustained a nasty cut in sparring less than two weeks from fight night.
Volkanovski fell to Makhachev by unanimous decision in their February meeting at UFC 284 but has since rebounded by defending his featherweight throne with a third-round TKO of Yair Rodriguez scored at UFC 290 in July. Makhachev returns to Abu Dhabi's Etihad Arena, where he submitted Oliveira to win his crown a year ago, on a 12-fight win streak.
In the card's co-headliner, Kamaru Usman moves up from 170 pounds to face the undefeated Kh amzat Chimaev at middleweight. The ex-welterweight champ replaces an ailing Paulo Costa – who recently bowed out with a staph infection – on just 10 days' notice and aims to bounce back from consecutive losses to current titleholder Leon Edwards. Chimaev returns to action 13 months after submitting Kevin Holland at UFC 279 and is undefeated in six fights at the UFC level.
Here are our best bets for Saturday's UFC 294 (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UFC 294 predictions
- Fight line: Nurmagomedov ML vs. Gafurov (-218 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Usman ML vs. Chimaev (+270 via DraftKings) ???
- Winning method: Mokaev by submission vs. Elliott (+230 via BetRivers) ???
- Prop bet: Aliskerov by KO/TKO vs. Alves (+148 via BetRivers) ???
- Parlay: Basharat by decision (-165) + Aliskerov by KO/TKO (+120) + Ankalaev vs. Walker doesn't go the distance (-200) = +430 (via DraftKings) ???
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UFC 294 schedule & odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
Main card (2 p.m. ET):
- Islam Makhachev (-278) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+225)
- Kamaru Usman (+270) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-340)
- Magomed Ankalaev (-375) vs. Johnny Walker (+295)
- Ikram Aliskerov (-625) vs. Warlley Alves (+455)
- Said Nurmagomedov (-218) vs. Muin Gafurov (+180)
Prelims (10 a.m. ET):
- Tim Elliott (+330) vs. Muhammad Mokaev (-425)
- Mohammad Yahya (+140) vs. Trevor Peek (-166)
- Javid Basharat (-575) vs. Victor Henry (+425)
- Abu Azaitar (+190) vs. Sedriques Dumas (-230)
- M ike Breeden (+240) vs. Anshul Jubli (-298)
- Nathaniel Wood (-340) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+270)
- Viktoriia Dudakova (-535) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+400)
- Shara Magomedov (-290) vs. Bruno Silva (+235)
Top picks for UFC 294
Nurmagomedov meets Gafurov as a comfortable favorite at our best sports betting sites, and for good reason. Not only is Nurmagomedov the taller, rangier fighter, but he also owns the edge in strength of schedule, having walked to the Octagon eight times, while Gafurov has competed in the big show only once.
The 31-year-old Nurmagomedov knows how to rely on his active kicking game to keep foes on the end of his range, and he isn't above shooting for the occasional takedown. With Gafurov likely aiming to bring the action to the mat, I see Nurmagomedov frustrating him with some clever distance striking and maybe even peppering in a takedown or two of his own to chew the clock and cruise to a seventh UFC victory.
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The line on this short-notice booking is just too compelling to pass up. Usman and Chimaev each boast excellent wrestling and solid wallops in their mitts, but the former remains a cut above the competition the latter has faced thus far, even at age 36. The former welterweight king's jab is a piston, and I expect him to throw it early and often to keep Chimaev honest and prevent another swift start from the Chechen.
Should Chimaev aggressively pursue takedowns early, I trust Usman's lauded defense (97%) to hold up, and once the pair exit the first round, look for Usman to open up with his hands on a tiring Chimaev and steadily land the cleaner, harder shots to claim the “0” on his foe's record.
Mokaev has submitted three of his four UFC conquests and earned half his 10 career wins by tap out, while Elliott has tapped four times in the Octagon and will likely give Mokaev the kind of fight he wants.
Elliott is easily the prospect's toughest test to date, but his strength lies in his funky grappling, takedowns, and scrambles, and I believe Mokaev can hang with the veteran on the mat even if he isn't first to shoot. Should Mokaev's slick grappling cause Elliott to create some of his patented scrambles, look for the former to capitalize on them and squeeze the latter's neck in transition to secure a sixth career tap out.
A solid puncher with fight-ending power, Aliskerov draws a natural welterweight who's been outstricked in each of his six UFC losses. The Russian boasts a crisp one-two and lethal left hook, something Phil Hawes learned the hard way in May, and it shouldn't be long before he treats Alves to a similar fate.
The Brazilian's Muay Thai stylings are nothing to scoff at, but I doubt he can keep Aliskerov on the back foot, and he isn't anyone's idea of a formidable takedown artist. In short, I see Aliskerov giving Alves an early taste of leather that will render him gun-shy before treating him a la Hawes with a hellacious, fight-ending combination.
This week's parlay includes a decision win for the undefeated Basharat and a prop bet on a light heavyweight clash between Ankalaev and Walker, in addition to the Aliskerov prop bet listed above.
Basharat is a willing striker and solid grappler who could put Henry on his back and chew the clock for a fourth straight win on points, while Ankalaev and Walker boast 26 knockouts between them and shouldn't need the full 15 to settle their battle.
UFC best bets made 19/10/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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