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The world's top MMA promotion is headed back across the pond for a card rife with British-based talent as we offer our UFC 304 predictions with odds from our best sports betting sites.
Manchester Co-op Live will host tonight's action as Leon Edwards defends his welterweight crown against streaking challenger Belal Muhammad in a five-round headliner. One of over a dozen fighters in UFC 304 who call the UK home, Edwards first met Muhammad back in 2021, with an accidental eye poke leaving the latter unable to continue and rendering the bout a no-contest.
The Birmingham product has since stunned Kamaru Usman twice to claim and retain the welterweight throne and most recently defended it with a unanimous verdict over Colby Covington in December at UFC 296. Muhammad, by comparison, vies for gold on a nine-fight winning streak over 14 months after claiming his own lopsided decision over Gilbert Burns at UFC 288.
In the evening's co-main event, Tom Aspinall defends the interim heavyweight strap on home soil against Curtis Blaydes, who last starched Jailton Almeida at UFC 299 in March.
UFC 304 predictions & picks
(UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best UFC betting sites)
- Green by KO/TKO/DQ or submission vs. Pimblett (+330 via DraftKings) ????
- Wood vs. Pineda Under 1.5 Rounds (+140 via BetMGM) ???
- Kape by KO/TKO/DQ or decision vs. Mokaev (+150 via DraftKings) ???
- Duncan vs. Rodrigues Under 1.5 Rounds (+130 via DraftKings) ????
UFC 304 expert picks
UFC expert picks made Friday at 2:54 p.m. ET.
Bobby Green enters his long-awaited grudge match opposite Paddy Pimblett with advantages in experience (48 f ights to 24), strength of schedule, significant strikes landed per minute (6.45 to 5.13), striking defense (62% to 41%), and takedown defense (74% to 55%).
While some might argue Green is a little long in the tooth at 37, the man remains a tough out for most lightweights and poses myriad stylistic problems for the boisterous, yet flawed Pimblett.
Not only can Green stuff a takedown and handle himself on the mat, he boasts a stunning jab, cheeky shoulder roll, and varied striking arsenal – all of which will come in handy against a foe who's game, but raw as a striker and all too prone to leaving his chin untucked when trading leather.
With recent finishes against Grant Dawson and Tony Ferguson and 20 career stoppages, Green should remind Pimblett he's got work to do in the most brutal fashion, whether on the feet or the mat.
Best odds: +330 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 23.3%
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Yes, Nathaniel Wood has gone the distance in four straight at featherweight and six straight in total, but he's tasked with an experienced journeyman and prolific finisher in Daniel Pineda.
A busy striker with 13 total stoppages to his name, Wood can finish anywhere and resort to the takedown when he needs to, while Pineda has finished all 28 of his pro conquests – with more than 20 ending in fewer than 1.5 rounds – and fallen within the distance in nine of 15 career losses.
As the matchup's more polished striker, Wood could catch Pineda clean or end things via club-and-sub. Should the Englishman choose to wrestle, the latter could flaunt his edge in experience, gain top control, and finish the action with his mitts or a 20th career tapout.
Whatever the outcome, these two featherweights should be in for a short night of work.
Best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.7%
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Unlike the hotel brawl they shared earlier this week, Manel Kape and Muhammad Mokaev should produce a fairly methodical showing once the cage door shuts.
A slick grappler who lands under two significant strikes a minute, Mokaev will be pursuing takedowns early and often, but I have faith in the Kape's takedown defense (77%) and far superior striking. The Angolan-born fighter boasts 11 knockouts in 19 career wins, but he can rein himself in when he needs to, having gone the distance in four of his six UFC showings.
Should he make Mokaev work for his takedowns (especially early on), Kape could tire his opponent out, open up with his combinations, and be the first to truly test Mokaev's chin for a 12th career KO/TKO, as the English transplant won't pose much of a threat on his feet.
That said, most flyweights know how to push a pace. Should Mokaev's motor do right by him, Kape will need to rely on his own version of sprawl-and-brawl for 15 minutes, hence this double chance bet.
Best odds: + 150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40%
One can always count on action fighters to deliver brief, yet ultraviolent performances. That's just what I expect from Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues come fight night.
Seven of Duncan's nine career stoppages have come within 1.5 rounds – two of them coming in the Octagon – while Rodrigues boasts knockouts in two straight, four of his last five, 10 overall, and nine in Under 1.5 stanzas.
With both men averaging a whopping six significant strikes per minute and boasting 18 knockouts between them, there's little to suggest this middleweight clash will produce anything less than a striker's ball with a quick and most ruthless end.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.5%
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