The UFC's return to Las Vegas sees a pair of well-rounded Brazilians square off in a welterweight main event. Read on for our best bets for Saturday's UFC Vegas 78 card based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
After last week's trip to Nashville, the promotion takes the Apex for a bill capped by Vicente Luque's clash with former lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos. The 31-year-old Luque aims to snap a two-fight skid and most recently fell to Geoff Neal by third-round KO last August. He heads to Vegas with a UFC record of 14-5 and stoppages in all but one of his promotional victories.
Unlike Luque, dos Anjos is coming off a W, having last submitted Bryan Barberena in his return to welterweight this past December. The victory marked the 38-year-old's third in his last four outings, and he now meets a fellow countryman with a UFC slate of 21-12, one boasting plenty of quality names.
The co-main event pits Cub Swanson against Hakeem Dawodu in a featherweight matchup of clever strikers. The seasoned Swanson looks to rebound from a TKO loss to Jonathan Martinez he suffered last year, while Dawodu last dropped a decision to Julian Erosa this past September.
With all that said, here are our best bets for Saturday's UFC Vegas 78 (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC Vegas 78 Schedule & Odds
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Main Card (7 p.m. EST):
- Vicente Luque (+110) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (-130)
- Cub Swanson (+190) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (-230)
- Khalil Rountree Jr. (-180) vs. Chris Daukaus (+150)
- Polyana Viana (+154) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-185)
- AJ Dobson (+120) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-142)
- Josh Fremd (-355) vs. Jamie Pickett (+280)
Prelims (4 p.m. EST):
- JP Buys (+285) vs. Marcus McGhee (-360)
- Terrance McKinney (-278) vs. Mike Breeden (+225)
- Francis Marshall (-170) vs. Isaac Dulgarian (+142)
- Josh Parisian (+164) vs. Martin Buday (-198)
- Jaqueline Amorim (-250) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+205)
- Juliana Miller (+120) vs. Luana Santos (-142)
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets
- Fight line: Marshall ML vs. Dulgarian (-170 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Luque ML vs. dos Anjos (+110 via DraftKings) ???
- Winning method: Luque by KO/TKO vs. dos Anjos (+250 via DraftKings) ???
- Prop bet: Swanson vs. Dawodu Goes the Distance (-105 via DraftKings) ???
- Parlay: Marshall (-170) + Luque (+110) + Buys vs. McGhee Under 1.5 Rounds (-145) = +464 (via DraftKings) ???
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Top Picks for UFC Vegas 78
Marshall is the more mature fighter in this matchup of young featherweights, boasting the more varied skill set and several wins that have required him to go the distance. Dulgarian, by comparison, owns a handful of quick stoppage wins over green or unheralded competition. Furthermore, Marshall isn't above grinding his way to a W with a wrestling-heavy gameplan, and with Dulgarian looking for another swift start, look for the former to slow the fight down, pursue takedowns early and often, and have his way with Dulgarian on the mat to get back in the win column.
Despite being the career welterweight of the weekend's closer, Luque meets dos Anjos as a slight underdog, and I like his chances of scoring an upset. Versatile as dos Anjos is, he's tasked with a foe who boasts 11 KO/TKOs and eight submissions in 21 career wins in Luque. The latter's varied skill set and finishing instincts don't bode well for dos Anjos, who'll need to trade leather with the lethal Luque in order to set up his takedowns. With Luque averaging 5.49 significant strikes per minute over dos Anjos' 3.56, I expect the former to outgun the latter and shuck off a few takedowns en route to a hard-fought rebound win.
Piggybacking off this week's upset pick, Luque is a purebred finisher who's dangerous everywhere, and while submitting the seasoned dos Anjos is a tall order, I see Luque winning in a firefight against a converted lightweight. Not only does Brazil's Luque land at a higher clip than dos Anjos, but he also boasts jaw-melting power and more tread on the proverbial tires than his 38-year-old dance partner. Knowing dos Anjos will need to trade zingers with him before pursuing the takedown, Luque should put his fellow Brazilian on the back foot and flaunt his edge in power before brutally reminding dos Anjos who the natural welterweight is.
In a battle of featherweight strikers in need of a bounce-back win, Swanson and Dawodu should show each other plenty of respect once the cage door shuts. At 39 with over 40 fights to his name, Swanson may be a little gun-shy now that the wins are harder to come by, while Dawodu is an ever-methodical kickboxer who's gone the distance in seven of his last eight UFC showings. In short, given Swanson's mileage and unorthodox techniques and Dawodu's penchant for going the full 15, look for these two to engage in a measured duel for three solid rounds.
This week's parlay comprises our favorite and upset picks, as well as a prop bet on a bantamweight matchup that shouldn't go the distance. McGhee has eased the judges' burden in all eight of his pro fights – six of which have taken under 1.5 rounds – while all but one of Buys' 14 career bouts have ended early, 10 of them before the second stanza's halfway mark. In short, expect a short night of work for these two bantamweights.
UFC best bets made 11/8/2023 at 12:06 a.m. ET.
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)