The UFC's return to the Apex sees a pair of strawweights meet in a five-round style clash. Read on for our best bets for Saturday's UFC Vegas 73 card based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Mackenzie Dern meets veteran Angela Hill in this weekend's main event after dropping a close contest to Yan Xiaonan by majority decision this past October. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace heads to Las Vegas with a UFC record of 7-3, with four of her promotional victories coming by submission. As for the other half of Saturday's main event, Hill most recently rebounded from a three-fight skid with back-to-back decision wins over Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote in 2022. The 38-year-old striker meets Dern with a UFC slate of 10-12, one comprising clashes with plenty of strawweight luminaries.
In the co-main event, middleweight prospect Edmen Shahbazyan will share the Octag on with Anthony Hernandez. The 25-year-old snapped his own three-fight slump this past December with a second-round TKO of Dalcha Lungiambula, while Hernandez earned his third straight win last September with a submission of Marc-Andre Barriault.
With all that said, here are our best bets for Saturday's UFC Vegas 73 (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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UFC Vegas 73 schedule & odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Mackenzie Dern (-155) vs. Angela Hill (+135)
- Edmen Shahbazyan (+160) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-190)
- Emily Ducote (+125) vs. Lupita Godinez (-145)
- Andre Fialho (+180) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-210)
- Carlos Diego Ferreira (-150) vs. Michael Johnson (+130)
- Hayisaer Maheshate (+140) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-1 65)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+110)
- Orion Cosce (-110) vs. Gilbert Urbina (-110)
- Ilir Latifi (+150) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-175)
- Chase Hooper (+105) vs. Nick Fiore (-125)
- Natalia Silva (-900) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+625)
- Takashi Sato (+105) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-125)
UFC Vegas 73 best bets
- Fight line: Dern ML vs. Hill (-155 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Fialho ML vs. Buckley (+190 via Caesars) ???
- Winning method: Dern by submission vs. Hill (+180 via PointsBet) ???
- Prop bet: Sato vs. Gorimbo Under 1.5 Rounds (+120 via DraftKings) ???
- Parlay: Sato vs. Gorimbo Under 2.5 Rounds (-160) + Cosce vs. Urbina doesn't go the distance (-190) + Dern by submission (+165) = +557 (via DraftKings) ???
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Top picks for UFC Vegas 73
In a main event pitting grappler against striker, I'm banking on the former to get her hand raised. Dern's own striking remains a work in progress, but she's game, packs a decent wallop, and lands at a good enough clip (3.02 significant strikes per minute) to earn Hill's respect and set up her takedowns.
Hill has earned her wins on volume, not power, and isn't one to claim the center and walk her foes down, a habit that will give Dern time to land some leather, close the distance, and bring the action to the mat, where Hill doesn't stand much of a chance. She'll eat some combos for her trouble, but Dern should find enough openings to get a scrappy Hill's back to the fence, then the floor and flaunt her lauded grappling to get ba ck in the win column.
Fialho and Buckley are a pair of ailing boxers in dire need of a win, and in a clash that will likely produce much violence, I see the former spoiling Buckley's UFC welterweight debut. Granted, Buckley boasts a slight edge in reach, but he prefers chucking hooks to working behind the jab, only lands 32% of his significant strike attempts, and has folded to strikes in three of his four promotional defeats.
Fialho hasn't fared much better of late. But he's the cleaner, taller boxer, and if he can hinder Buckley's mobility with his nasty, yet dormant low kicks, he'll have an easier time landing the more substantial blows upstairs en route to a bounce-back victory.
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Hill has only tapped in two of 12 career losses, but she's struggled against clever grapplers in Virna Jandiroba and Randa Markos. And Dern isn't just any grappler. The decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu player has tapped seven of her 12 career conquests, and she won't need long to pad those numbers should Hill's back hit the floor.
The seasoned Hill's footwork and volume won't make it easy, but with five rounds to work, Dern will find a way to drag the action into her domain sooner or later, after which she'll snatch Hill's neck or one of her limbs for an eighth career win by submission.
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In 21 career contests, Sato has stopped 10 men in Under 1.5 rounds and caught the short end of five finishes, while Gorimbo has earned six stoppages and suffered three in less than 1.5 rounds. In other words, each of these welterweights has betrayed a habit of winni ng and losing big, and often in short order, with Sato boasting 11 KO/TKO victories and three submission losses, and Gorimbo owning six tapouts in 10 career wins.
With Sato looking to stay upright and land his patented straight left and Gorimbo angling for takedowns from the opening bell, this pair should see another short night of work – no matter where the action goes.
It wouldn't be a UFC card without a juicy parlay to root for throughout the night. Because we like the angle on most of these fights, we will take advantage of the +557 price tag at DraftKings on this parlay.
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UFC best bets made 05/20/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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