The UFC's return to Kansas City features featherweight duellists Max Holloway and Arnold Allen clash in a five-round headliner. Read on for our best bets for Saturday's UFC on ESPN 44 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
A former divisional champion, Holloway aims to rebound in yet another five-round tilt after falling to reigning king Alexander Volkanovski by decision this past July. The loss on points concluded Holloway's trilogy with Volkanovski and snapped a two-fight win streak that included victories over Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar.
As for the other half of Saturday's headliner, Allen heads to Missouri with 12 straight wins and a pristine 10-0 UFC record to his name. The lauded Brit's first outing of the year follows a pair of 2022 TKO victories over Dan Hooker and Kattar.
In the co-main event, Edson Barboza looks to snap a two-fight skid opposite Billy Quarantillo. The Brazilian fan favorite has gone just 3-7 in his past 10 bouts, while Quarantillo most recently dispatched Alexander Hernandez by TKO this past December.
With all that said, here are our best bets for UFC on ESPN 44 (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC on ESPN 44 Schedule & Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
Main Card (8:30 p.m ET):
- Max Holloway (-165) vs. Arnold Allen (+140)
- Edson Barboza (+145) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-170)
- Dustin Jacoby (-150) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (+130)
- Tanner Boser (+110) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-130)
- Pedro Munhoz (+170) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-200)
- Clay Guida (+225) vs. Rafa Garcia (-265)
Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET):
- Bill Algeo (-190) vs. TJ Brown (+160)
- Brandon Royval (+170) vs. Matheus Nicolau (-200)
- Zak Cummings (-225) vs. Ed Herman (+190)
- Gillian Robertson (-125) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+105)
- Lando Vannata (+110) vs. Daniel Zellhuber ( -130)
- Bruna Brasil (-150) vs. Denise Gomes (+130)
- Aaron Phillips (+160) vs. Gaston Bolanos (-190)
- Joselyne Edwards (+120) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-140)
UFC on ESPN 44 Best Bets
- Moneyline: Holloway ML vs. Allen (-165 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Boser ML vs. Cutelaba (+115 via Caesars) ???
- Winning method: Holloway by decision vs. Allen (+180 via DraftKings) ???
- Prop bet: Guida vs. Garcia to end by submission (+260 via FanDuel) ???
- Parlay: Holloway by decision (+175) + Gutierrez (-200) + Nicolau (-200) = +519 (via DraftKings) ???
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Top Picks for UFC on ESPN 44
It may be some time before he vies for gold again, but Holloway remains the world's best featherweight not named Alexander Volkanovski. Tasked with a willing combination striker in Allen, Holloway should have plenty of time and space to find a home for his active jab and punches in bunches.
Between his edge in conditioning, output (7.24 to 3.4 significant strikes landed per minute), and strength of schedule, look for Holloway to outgun a willing Allen, but not without eating a little leather in return.
Boser moves down from heavyweight to meet Cutelaba, a bruiser who packs a thunderous wallop but is sorely lacking in fight IQ. Whether Cutelaba is content to stay upright or work for takedowns, he'll have a rough go of cornering Boser, who does his best work in space, uses every inch of the cage, and boasts a solid takedown defense of 64%.
Furthermore, Cutelaba has betrayed poor footwork and cage-cutting in the past, and with Boser landing over four significant strikes per minute, I see the latter staying on his bicycle and potshotting an aggressive Cutelaba from range to win a potentially tepid UFC light heavyweight debut.
Holloway has gone the full five-round distance in his last seven contests – a feat Allen has yet to complete in an 11-year career – and he's landed north of 100 significant strikes in every one of those outings. Simply put, the ex-featherweight king can push a pace like very few mortals can, and he's done it while eating leather from some of the division's best bruisers in Volkanovski, Rodriguez, Jose Aldo, and even Dustin Poirier at lightweight.
As Holloway and Allen begin trading zingers and the latter begins to fade, I expect Holloway to flaunt his otherworldly cardio, let his combinations fly, and cruise to a lopsided decision in what should amount to a vintage performance.
Not only do Clay Guida and Rafa Garcia boast 22 submission victories between them, but the former has also tapped a whopping 11 times in his 22 career defeats. Furthermore, with Guida averaging 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes and Garcia netting 4.24 of his own, these two lightweights shouldn't need long to hit the mat and start jockeying for position.
Whether Guida opens up with ground-and-pound before snatching a neck or Garcia makes himself a human backpack to put the squeeze on, this lightweight contest should end with someone tapping or venturing off to dreamland.
UFC best bets made 15/4/2023 at 12:11 a.m. ET.
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