Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are set to battle for the BMF title when the UFC returns to Salt Lake City on Saturday night for UFC 291. Read on for our best UFC 291 bets based on the UFC odds from our best sportsbooks.
A pair of the finest lightweights on the planet, Poirier and Gaethje originally squared off more than five years ago at UFC on FOX 29, with Poirier emerging victorious via TKO early in the fourth round. The two men engaged in an absolute war for more than 15 minutes before “The Diamond” eventually stunned Gaethje with a thundering left hand, and polished him off with a devastating barrage of punches.
Since then, Poirier has racked up a 6-2 record against the absolute elite at lightweight, notching wins over Conor McGregor (twice), Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, and Michael Chandler. Poirier's only losses during that stretch came against cha mpions Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.
Much like Poirier, Gaethje has only tasted defeat against Nurmagomedov and Oliveira since UFC on FOX 29, using his terrifying brand of violence to carve through James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, and Rafael Fiziev.
We've made our picks for the Poirier vs. Gaethje headliner, but aside from this scintillating BMF title matchup, this card is packed with absolute bangers, including former middleweight kingpin's Alex Pereira's move to light heavyweight where he'll face ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, and a heavyweight delight between Derrick Lewis and Marcos De Lima.
With all that in mind, here are our UFC best bets for UFC 291 (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UFC 291 schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Miranda Maverick (-285) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+240)
- Matthew Semelsberger (-205) vs. Uros Medic (+175)
- CJ Vergara (-165) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+135)
- Jake Matthews (-260) vs. Darrius Flowers (+220)
- Roman Kopylov (-220) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+180)
- Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-210)
- Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Trevin Giles (+280)
- Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145)
- Tony Ferguson (+295) vs. Bobby Green (-360)
- Jan Blachowicz (-110) vs. Alex Pereira (-110)
- Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)
UFC 291 best bets
- Over/Under: Poirier vs. Gaethje Over 2.5 rounds (-125 via PointsBet) ????
- ML: Blachowicz (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Winning Method: Derrick Lewis to w in by KO/TKO (+260 via FanDuel) ????
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UFC top picks for UFC 291
In what could be a bit of a pick 'em, I think there's more value in not actually picking a winner. Instead, I'm betting this bout will get past the halfway point. Their first encounter made it to the fourth stanza and Poirier has seen the third round in five of his past seven trips to the Octagon. Gaethje, for his part, battled Rafael Fiziev to a decision in his last fight and has made it to the third frame in three of his past five.
I'm not betting against the blissful ultraviolence that generally follows these two men, but I expect a bloody conclusion at some point during the championship rounds.
This fight feels like a bit of a trap for Pereira. The terrifying kickboxer didn't really face a stout wrestler during his middleweight campaign, and, although Blachowicz isn't the best wrestler in the world, he's big and rugged, and can drag this bout to the floor.
Of course, there's always a chance Pereira uncorks something nasty and violently sends Blachowicz on an unscheduled trip to the land of wind and ghosts, but I just don't see that happening. The impossibly tough Blachowicz will weather the storm on the feet before taking this bout to the floor. From there he'll control the fight en route to a decision victory or late stoppage.
I'm backing a vintage performance from Lewis, and a vintage Derrick Lewis performance generally includes a melted jaw. Lewis hits like a freight train carrying dynamite and loose matches, racking up 21 TKOs/KOs in 26 career victorie s. De Lima is no slouch himself, notching 14 KOs/TKOs in his 21 wins.
I have a feeling that, either way, someone is getting felled like a redwood, and I'm betting that someone is De Lima.
UFC best bets made 7/28/2023 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
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