The UFC's return to Vancouver sees Amanda Nunes defend her bantamweight crown against Irene Aldana in a main event scheduled for five rounds or less. Read on for our best bets for Saturday's UFC 289 card based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
A two-time bantamweight queen, Nunes puts the strap on the line after reclaiming it from Julianna Pena with a lopsided decision this past July. The win preceded a shocking 2021 upset at Pena's hands, one that snapped Nunes' gaudy 12-fight, six-year undefeated streak.
The pair were booked to settle their rivalry in Saturday's headliner, only for an injured Pena to withdraw last month. Enter Aldana, who gets her first crack at UFC gold on a two-fight win streak. The Mexican product most recently finished Macy Chiasson by third-round KO last September, the stoppage bringing her UFC record to 7-4.
In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira will tangle with a streaking Beneil Dariush. The Brazilian aims to rebound from an October submission loss to current champ Islam Makhachev – which snapped an 11-fight win streak – while Dariush looks to make it nine in a row after outpointing Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 280 in October.
With all that said, here are our best bets for Saturday's UFC 289 (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC 289 schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
Main card (10 p.m. ET):
- Amanda Nunes (-320) vs. Irene Aldana (+265)
- Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Beneil Dariush (-145)
- Mike Malott (-205) vs. Adam Fugitt (+175)
- Dan Ige (-260) vs. Nate Landwehr (+220)
- Marc-Andre Barriault (-135) vs. Eryk Anders (+115)
Prelims (8 p.m. ET):
- Nassourdine Imavov (-155) vs. Chris Curtis (+135)
- Miranda Maverick (-295) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+245)
- Aiemann Zahabi (+100) vs. Aori Qileng (-120)
- Kyle Nelson (+200) vs. Blake Bilder (-240)
Early prelims (7 p.m. ET):
- David Dvorak (-265) vs. Stephen Erceg (+225)
- Diana Belbita (-120) vs. Maria Oliveira (+100)
UFC 289 best bets
- Fight line: Imavov ML vs. Curtis (-155 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Landwehr ML vs. Ige (+220 via DraftKings) ???
- Winning method: Nunes by submission or decision vs. Aldana (+140 via DraftKings) ???
- Prop bet: Dvorak vs. Erceg Under 1.5 rounds (+240 via DraftKings) ???
- Parlay: Malott vs. Fugitt Under 1.5 rounds (-120) + Imavov (-155) + Dvorak vs. Erce g doesn't go the distance (+110) = +533 (via DraftKings) ???
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Top picks for UFC 289
Chris Curtis may be a clever striker, but he doesn't always push his advantages and often waits for his dance partner to come to him, while Nassourdine Imavov can take a shot and is adept at darting in and out of range.
With a 75-inch reach and an output of 4.32 significant strikes landed per minute, Imavov can outduel many a man from the outside, and he gets a foe who eats more leather than he lands (5.59 to 6.22 significant strikes per minute) in Curtis. In short, look for Imavov to frustrate Curtis with his length, potshot from the outside, and remain the busier middleweight through three rounds to claim the W.
Granted, Dan Ige has faced stiffer competition over his UFC stint than Nate Landwehr has, but he's been outgunned before, and Landwehr is nothing if not a gunslinger.
Indeed, “The Train” lands an absurd 6.47 significant strikes per minute and can push a frenetic pace over three rounds, and I doubt he'll spend much time on the mat come fight night, as Ige has long preferred trading leather over shooting for takedowns. If either of these men start shooting, they'll likely be panic-wrestling, but in any case, I see Landwehr putting Ige on the back foot, overwhelming him with combinations, and eating a few zingers for his trouble to make it four in a row.
Aldana may not be a world-beater, but her left hook is certainly worth respecting, and I trust Nunes to act accordingly and exploit her advantages on the mat. The defending champ showed she isn't above shooting for takedowns in wins over Pena and Germaine de Randamie, and she's proven adept at gaining back control and snatching a neck when it presents itself.
With Nunes' upset loss to Pena still etched in her recent memory, the champ should neutralize Aldana's solid boxing, go the smarter route, and drag the challenger to the ground, where she'll dominate to either claim a lopsided verdict or add a fifth career tapout to her resume.
David Dvorak has finished 16 of his 20 career conquests (13 in under 1.5 rounds) and made easy work of his last short-notice opponent. Stephen Erceg – his latest foe – has earned seven of nine pro wins within the distance, with five of those stoppages coming in the opening stanza.
In other words, Dvorak is tasked with a swift starter in the debuting Erceg, and I expect the latter to push the pace, and scrambles galore to ensue. Whether Dvo rak gives Erceg the rudest of UFC welcomes or the latter scores an upset with one of his preferred chokes, these flyweights won't need long to settle a fight that will produce plenty of action.
UFC best bets made 9/6/2023 at 12:06 a.m. ET.
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