The UFC returns to Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena for its latest PPV event, capped by Jon Jones' long-awaited heavyweight debut against Cyril Gane. Read on for our best bets for Saturday's UFC 285 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Jones ends a layoff of over three years with this pivotal fight and moves up from light heavyweight, at which he cleaned house over many years despite a variety of professional and legal troubles.
The 35-year-old vies for the UFC heavyweight crown in his divisional debut just a few months after the recently departed Francis Ngannou vacated the throne over a contract dispute. Jones hasn't taken an L in over a decade and last entered the Octagon at UFC 247, when he defended the light heavyweight title he subsequently vacated with a controversial split decision over Dominick Reyes.
As for Gane, the French product claimed an interim crown with a TKO of Derrick Lewis back in 2021, only to drop a decision to Ngannou in a championship unification bout at UFC 270 in January 2022. The 32-year-old has since rebounded with an impressive knockout of Tai Tuivasa, and now enters Saturday's headliner with a UFC record of 8-1.
Moments prior to Saturday's main event, Valentina Shevchenko will defend her flyweight throne against a streaking Alexa Grasso. The reigning queen earned her crown with a decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in 2018 and last defended it for the seventh time with a hard-fought verdict over Taila Santos at UFC 275, while Grasso has won four straight since moving up from strawweight in 2020 and most recently secured a decision over Viviane Araujo this past October.
Here are our best bets for UFC 285 (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC 285 Schedule & Odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Jon Jones (-170) vs. Cyril Gane (+145)
- Valentina Shevchenko (-750) vs. Alexa Grasso (+550)
- Geoff Neal (+390) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-490)
- Mateusz Gamrot (-215) vs. Jalin Turner (+185)
- Bo Nickal (-1500) vs. Jamie Pickett (+900)
- Cody Garbrandt (-175) vs. Trevin Jones (+150)
- Derek Brunson (+190) vs. Dricus du Plessis (-225)
- Viviane Araujo (+100) vs. Amanda Ribas (-120)
- Julian Marquez (+130) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (-150)
- Ian Garry (-730) vs. Kenan Song (+530)
- Cameron Saaiman (-265) vs. Leomana Martinez (+225)
- Jessica Penne (+255) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-305)
- Da'Mon Blackshear (+360) vs. Farid Basharat (-450)
- Este ban Ribovics (+210) vs. Loik Radzhabov (-250)
UFC 285 Best Bets
- Fight line: Ribas (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Araujo ???
- Upset: Marquez (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Barriault ???
- Winning method: Gamrot by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Turner ???
- Prop bet: Jones-Gane goes the distance (-116 via FanDuel) ???
- Parlay: Gamrot (-215) + Ribas (-120) + Marquez (+130) = +518 (via DraftKings) ???
Top Picks for UFC 285
To Araujo's credit, she's a willing banger and aggressive top player, but she eats twice as many significant strikes per minute as her opponent, while Ribas heads into this matchup with an edge in significant strike defense (71% to 57%) and both takedown and submission average.
A methodical striker with some clever grappling of her own, Ribas will need to time her counters and rely on her takedowns and scrambles in equal measure.
With Araujo looking to overwhelm Ribas on the feet and maybe even outmuscle her against the cage, look for Ribas to respond with some well-timed judo throws and land the cleaner strikes en route to the W.
Marquez will likely get the firefight he wants when he meets Barriault, as both middleweights earn most of their wins by KO/TKO and target the head more than 70% of the time. The 32-year-old Marquez lands four significant strikes per minute and, unlike Barriault, poses a legitimate submission threat, having earned his three UFC wins by tapout and boasting a submission average of 3.01 per 15 minutes.
He'll have to eat a few zingers for his trouble, but I see Marquez pushing the pace, padding Barriault's 4.83 significant strikes absorbed per minute, and maybe wrapping things up with a club-and-sub to get back in the win column.
Turner's five-fight win streak is nothing to scoff at, but he was handily outwrestled and out-scrambled by Matt Frevola in his last defeat, and I like Gamrot's chances of repeating the feat on Saturday.
With a solid significant strike defense of 61% and a takedown average of 4.66 per 15 minutes, the seasoned Gamrot should remain respectful of Turner's rangy striking and trade leather long enough to set up his takedowns, and anyone familiar with Gamrot's KSW run knows what a tireless worker he is once he's in top control.
Gamrot's motor has earned him a dozen career finishes, and whether he advances position and lets the ground-and-pound rip or Turner leaves his neck or a limb ripe for snatching in a scramble, the Polish contender gets back in the win column within the distance.
In a battle of two methodical technicians, I expect both Gane and Jones to remain wary and respectful of each other from first bell to last, albeit for different reasons.
Gane has gone the full five rounds in three of his last five contests and will keep Jones honest with stance switches, feints, and a varied arsenal, while Jones remains a clever striker and solid technical wrestler who's gone the distance in seven of his last eight victories. Furthermore, with Jones moving up to heavyweight, I suspect the former 205-pound champ may have second thoughts about pursuing the takedown once he gets a proper feel for Gane's size and strength.
All this stay, I'm expecting a risk-averse showing from both men and the judges to get involved in a potentially tepid main event.
UFC best bets made 3/3/2023 at 12:07 a.m. ET.
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