Let's look into some mispriced betting lines for Saturday's UFC Jacksonville event and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the ABC event.
UFC Jacksonville, which is also dubbed UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria, takes place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Following prelims on ESPN (noon ET), the UFC Jacksonville main card airs live on ABC (3 p.m. ET). ESPN+ also simulcasts the entire fight card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that's what a betting line is: a mark et where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.