UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for August 10th with the main event headlined by Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Stephanie Luciano -185 vs Talita Alencar +154
This is a rematch from Contender Series, and nothing has really changed since that match that ended in a draw. Alencar shoots for takedowns, and wants this fight to take place on the ground, and Luciano wants it to stay on the feet.
Alencar has had a UFC fight since CS, and she did win the fight, and her striking did look much better than on Contender Series, but she still has real problems with striking defense, and she just eats a ton of punches and kicks on the feet.
Her cardio in the 3rd round is a problem, and on CS, Luciano was able to take advantage and get a 10-8 round three, but Alencar did look to have more energy in round three of her UFC debut.
When Alencar had energy in the CS fight she was able to take Luciano down and win the first two rounds, and I think there's a chance the same thing happens.
I don't think Alencar is good, but she's improved quite a bit since CS, and she has a full three-round UFC fight under her belt, and Luciano hasn't had a fight since then.
It's not going to be a great fight, but I think Alencar at +154 is the only way to play the sides on this fight, but I will most certainly be taking this fight to go the distance as the fighters are pretty equal, and I don't see who will have any finishing ability in this fight.
Youssef Zalal -375 vs Jarno Errens +295
This line is bonkers. Absolutely crazy. I think this fight is way closer to a pick 'em so I won't be playing Zalal in any parlays even though I think he should win.
We had a nice cash on Errens in his last fight against Steve Nguyen where he showed improved striking and cardio, but I just really worry about his lack of takedown defense.
Zalal is getting a second chance in the UFC and by all accounts he's confident about having a nice run. He got a win in his return against Billy Quarantillo, but it was obvious Billy Q was injurred so Zalal got a nice gift in that fight.
I see Errens having some success on the feet, but Zalal controlling the fight with wrestling and grappling en route to a decision win.
If you think this -375 is crazy like I do, play Zalal to win by decision, or just take overs in this fight as I don't see either of these guys getting knocked out, and really the only finish I see as a possibility is Zalal submission on the ground, but I think Errens has the athleticism to not get stuck in one.
Karl Williams -218 vs Jhonata Diniz +180
This is just a wrestler vs. striker match as Diniz will want this to stay on the feet so he can utilize his brutal striking, and Williams will be looking to wrestle and take Diniz down all fight.
I don't think Diniz has faced anyone even remotely close to Karl Williams, and I think this is going to be a frustrating fight for him.
Williams doesn't mess around on the feet, he just goes right for the takedowns, and he's had success against everyone in the UFC as he's 3-0, and he's used the same strategy every time.
Williams is the play, and one other thing to note is that Williams's cardio seems to be getting a bit better as he was able to get takedowns and ground and pound late in the third round against Tafa in his last fight so I don't think he'll be gassed towards the end. Williams is the play for me.
Karol Rosa -185 vs Pannie Kianzad +145
I don't have a ton of great things to say about either fighter so I won't be betting this fight, but Rosa is the only play here.
Kianzad can't beat anybody good as her only win in her last 4 fights was against Lina Lansberg who is no longer fighting.
She has really bad takedown defense, and mediocre striking, and while I don't know if Rosa will be able to exploit the lack of takedown defense, I do think she's going to have a bit more stamina and a bit more volume with her strikes.
Rosa really got beat up by Aldana in her last fight, but she toughed it out, and made it the distance even though she was overmatched.
This fight probably goes the distance, but Pannie looked so bad in her last fight getting submitted in the first round, I don't want to bet on her lasting all 3 rounds. I won't be betting this fight with my money.
Danny Barlow -340 vs Nikolay Veretennikov +270
A strikers delight here as Veretennikov makes his UFC debut, and it's a pretty brutal debut as Barlow is one of the more powerful strikers in the UFC, and he's by far the toughest striker Nikolay has ever faced.
Nikolay has a lot of experience, but he doesn't look that great on the feet despite his good record. He's slower than Barlow and has benefitted from facing quite a few lackluster opponents.
There's also a red flag with Nikolay as I don't like seeing guys get their first UFC fight late in their career, and NIkolay is 34.