UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for December 9th with Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez headlining the event in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
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Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Steve Garcia v Melquizael Costa
This should be a really fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, and while I think Costa squeaks out a close win, there's no way I'm laying -230 on him.
Garcia has won two fights in a row by KO, and has showed really great power in those wins so I'm not counting him out of this fight.
Costa certainly has the speed advantage on the feet, and his movement and kicks are going to be big weapons for him, but if Garcia closes the distance and gets Costa in the clinch, he can land big shots that will slow Costa down.
Garcia by KO could be an interesting prop because I don't think Garcia can win a decision, and Costa by decision could be another way to bet this fight if you believe in Costa, but from a betting perspective, I will sit this one out.
Rayanne dos Santos -142 v Talita Alencar +120
Talita Alencar comes from a wrestling/grappling background, and that's what she does in her fights. Her striking defense is bad, and her striking is pretty weak as well.
Where she excels is getting opponents to the ground, controlling them and dominating large chunks of time.
She is coming off a draw in Contender Series, and I wasn't impressed as she gassed as the fight went on, and in round three she was getting hit bad on the feet and was desperate to stay on the ground.
I think Rayanne dos Santos beats her up pretty good on the feet, it just comes down to what can dos Santos do when Alencar shoots for takedowns.
She won't stop them all, but I think her striking and athleticism will be enough to frustrate Alencar early and that will lead to dos Santos piecing her up on the feet.
Dos Santos's ground game isn't amazing, but it's good enough to not let Alencar dominate, and on the feet it's no contest. Dos Santos should win this one.
Stephanie Egger +150 v Luana Santos -180
The lines are strange for this fight. Stephanie Egger should win this fight, and if she doesn't that will be two horrible losses in a row.
Santos hasn't fought great competition, and even though she got the first round finish in her UFC debut, she was fighting Juliana Miller who is nowhere near a UFC caliber fighter.
Santos's striking is wild and a bit unorthodox and although she has finishes on her record, Egger is a massive step-up in competition.
Egger just looked like she wasn't paying attention in her last fight, and it cost her as she got caught in a kneebar, but before that she had a nice win against Ailin Perez by submission.
If Egger is smart, she'll use her wrestling and grappling as she is much better in that area, but I just can't bet on Stephanie Egger after that last performance. No chance I'm laying -180 on Santos who I'm not that high on so this fight is a pass for me.
Kenan Song +142 v Kevin Jousset -170
Kenan Song has lost two straight to Ian Gary and Max Griffin, but he rebounded in his last fight by beating Rolando Bedoya in a fight that took place on the feet and Song pushed forward and landed the better shots all fight including a nice knock down in round two.
I thought his movement looked good, and his striking was just a bit more crisp than Bedoya so it was a well-deserved win, and his opponent will absolutely stand and strike with him.
Joussett made his UFC debut in his last fight and got the round one finish as he used his length to land jabs and good kicks which eventually led to a clinch and takedown, and a submission (Jousset's opponent had the worst submission defense I've ever seen).
This fight comes down to the length of Jousset, and can he land enough to slow down Song, and can he do enough damage early because Song looks to have really good cardio.
I don't think this fight has any value in betting it, but I would lean ever so slightly to Song as I have a feeling Song's speed and cardio will win him rounds two and three.
Tatsuro Taira -410 v Carlos Hernandez +320
Carlos Hernandez has pretty decent striking as he beat up Bondar in his last fight, but Bondar isn't an amazing UFC fighter, and for Hernandez it's all about avoiding the takedowns and ground game of Tatsuro Taira who is 14-0.
It's not a good sign for Hernandez that he got submitted in round one against Allan Nascimento two fights ago as Nascimento is a takedown and ground game specialist.
I don't think Taira will let Hernandez get going with his striking, and Taira will get this to the ground sooner rather than later, and once on the ground it's Taira all day.
I think Taira ML is a fantastic parlay piece, or you can wait til props come out and take Taira inside the distance.
Hyun Sung Park -425 v Shannon Ross +330
Shannon Ross has to be one of the worst UFC fighters on the roster, and to be honest, he's only getting UFC fights because he's Australian and he's been on the cards with fellow Australian Alexander Volkanovski.
He lost on Contender Series as a favorite, and he's had two UFC fights and he was knocked out in 59 seconds in his first fight, and then he was KO'd in 17 seconds so we really have no idea what he can do. He's fighting Park, who is coming off of Road To UFC, and I've just decided that I'm not betting on sides with these guys making their debut coming off of Road To UFC.
Park is 8-0, but the competition is tough to determine, and from what I've seen he does some striking well, and can submit guys, but he doesn't have good striking defense so there are just a lot of unknowns with him.
What I am doing is betting these fights that feature Road To UFC fighters is to not go the distance. They seem to be kill or be killed, and the last few I've seen have ended early.