UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for October 12th with the main event headlined by Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Clayton Carpenter -175 vs Lucas Rocha +145
Both these guys haven't fought in a while so I expect them to be fresh and ready to scrap. Carpenter should have a massive advantage with the takedown and grappling as Rocha is coming off a KO win on Contender Series last season, but he was dominated on the ground for the first round before landing a huge knee to start round two.
Rocha is only 24 years old, but has 18 fights and while he has a great record, I see so many holes in his game. His striking defense isn't great, his takedown defense is bad, but he has this ability to turn fights into wild brawls where he excels and has gotten plenty of knockouts in his career.
I don't think his style is going to hold up in the UFC without some serious adjustments so I'll take Carpenter to expose those weaknesses and get the win here.
Don't be surprised if he gets the submission on the ground, and Rocha is always live for a KO so taking this fight to not go the distance might be a good look.
Themba Gorimbo -278 vs Niko Price +225
Gorimbo has one of the more interesting story in the UFC as he was so broke, he couldn't afford food, and his fighting looked like it. He got some help from some fighters, and then The Rock of all people, and it's resulted in three straight wins in the UFC.
He prefers to clinch, wrestle, and get the fight to the ground, and now that he has proper nutrition, he has really good cardio to keep with the grueling style for three rounds.
Niko Price's career is on life support as he's 2-5 in his last seven fights, and the only reason he beat Morono in his last fight was because Morono gassed worse than Price, but in the first round Morono was beating him, including some grappling moments where Price looked bad.
Gorimbo should be able to close the distance, force Price to defend the wrestling and takedowns, and wear Price out en route to a decision win. It probably won't be an exciting fight, but it should be a comfortable win for Gorimbo.
Junior Tafa -345 vs Chris Barnett +275
Friends don't let friends lay -345 on Junior Tafa. Both these guys aren't very good, but Tafa's lack of takedown defense and wrestling is a massive problem, and if Barnett can force the issue and get on top of Tafa, he'll win.
He won his last fight by getting on top of Collier and getting the ground-and-pound finish, and all he has to do is not get KO'd in the first and I like his chances here at plus money.
I keep hearing about how good of a striker Junior Tafa is, but I don't see it. He's knocked out Parker Porter, and lost his other three fights in the UFC, and he is the true definition of a one-trick-pony.
This price is insane, I'll take a sprinkle on Barnett to avoid the big shot early, get Tafa down and win by ground-and-pound or decision.
Jonathan Pearce -130 vs Pat Sabatini +110
This should be a really close fight as both guys like to shoot takedowns, and get the fight to the ground so it comes down to who can assert their will the best. Sabatini is terrible with striking as his last two losses came by KO so Pearce may want to keep this on the feet for as long as he can.
Pearce has lost two in a row, but they weren't bad losses. He was dominating Brito before making a mistake and getting caught in a submission, and his fight against Onama was a war with tons of takedowns, reversals and striking, and the decision could have gone either way.
I'll lean Pearce as his striking is so much better than Sabatini, but it's not confident enough to bet with my own money.
Ramazan Temirov -258 vs CJ Vergara +210
Temirov has been on a tear recently as he's won his last four fights by finish, but this isn't going to be an easy fight for him. Vergara's last two losses have come to guys who took him down and controlled the fight on the ground, but that's not Temirov's game.
Vergara has great cardio, solid movement, and a nice variety of strikes with punches and kicks so I think he'll have success at times making this fight closer than the line shows.
I don't know enough about Temirov to make a bet on this fight, but I wouldn't be laying -258, and I think this fight could go the distance as Vergara has never been knocked out. Overs or nothing for me in this fight.
Cody Haddon -185 vs Dan Argueta +154
I love Argueta here at this price. Haddon is coming off a Contender Series win, but his level of competition has been pretty bad, and his opponent on CS was from A1 Combat, and we've been fading them with a lot of success.
He has decent striking, and a good ground game, but stepping up to Argueta could be a rude awakening. Argueta likes to wrestle, and get the fight to the ground, and he's going to easily be the strongest and best opponent that Haddon has faced.
My hesitation is that he looked slow in his last fight against Matsumoto, especially on the feet. His striking was awful, and while he kept pushing forward, Matsumoto was able to weather the storm until Argueta tired, and made a big mistake giving up his neck and getting submitted.
Haddon's biggest advantage in this fight will be his speed and cardio, but don't be surprised if Argueta puts on a veteran performance and frustrates Haddon. I won't bet this with my own money, but Argueta at plus money is the pick.
Chidi Njokuani -185 vs Jared Gooden +154
This is a terrible fight that I won't be betting on, but you're asking for trouble laying -185 on Chidi. His cardio has been truly awful in some fights, and even though he's coming off a win, it was a horrible fight where him an McKee hugged for the last two rounds, and it was a razor thin split decision win for Chidi.