UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for March 23rd with Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas headlining the event in a women’s flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Amanda Ribas vs Rose Namajunas: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Mick Parkin -148 v Mohammed Usman +124
This is a fairly low level heavy-weight fight between two guys who are pretty low volume, and not very exciting to watch.
Parking had a bunch of finishes before his UFC career, but his two fights in UFC have gone the distance and haven't been that exciting.
The same can be said for Usaman, but give both guys credit as they have won all of their UFC fights albeit against low-level opponents.
This is a classic dog or pass situation as there's no value laying -148 with either of these guys, but I do like playing this fight to go the distance.
Neither of these guys are finishers at the UFC level, they're too low volume, and after the first round their cardio will be too low for a finish anywhere. Take the over and move on.
Andre Lima -175 v Igor Da Silva +145
Two fighters from Contender Series, and fading guys from Contender Series has been a pretty good strategy so this fight is difficult.
These guys are pretty evenly matched so I think Da Silva at +145 is a pretty good beet. Lima is very crisp on the feet, and his movement is really good, but I didn't see any killer instinct on Contender Series, and Da Silva walked his opponent down all fight and got the round two finish.
I think when this fight gets into the clinch, or on the ground that Da Silva might be able to do more damage so I think he's worth a sprinkle. I'll make Da Silva my pick for this fight.
Darya Zheleznyakova -175 v Montserrat Rendon +147
I don't think Rendon is that good, but I give her credit in beating Vidal in her last fight as a +200 underdog.
Her striking still isn't great as it isn't powerful, and it's just one strike and move, but she just seems to find a way to squeak out rounds with a takedown or something good at the end of the round, and her cardio looked good in the three-round fight against Vidal so we know she'll have plenty of energy if this goes the distance. Zheleznyakova is a really god striker who has a great stance, has quick jabs and hooks, and has shown power, but it's been against pretty bad opponents.
The problem is Zheleznyakova leaves herself open for counter strikes, and in her loss, she got taken down and ended up getting ground and pounded out and Rendon's ground game is way better than anything Zheleznyakova has faced.
Zheleznyakova can't take getting hit, and while Rendon isn't a great striker, I think Rendon survives on the feet, and gets this to the ground where she dominates. I'll gladly take the underdog here.
Steven Nguyen -198 v Jarno Errens +164
I've been excited to fade Steven Nguyen when he got to the UFC, and I'm happy to get this price on Errens. I'll start with Nguyen who gets a lot of hype, and I don't get it.
He's 30 years old, and has a 9-1 record, but it's so fraudulent as he's fought a who's who of nobodies, and he got a UFC contract on his THIRD TIME ON CONTENDER SERIES!!!
He lost on his first try, he got a boring decision win in 2021 that he didn't get a contract from, and they gave him AJ Cunningham in his third match, and Cunningham is a walking punching bag, and Nguyen knocked him out.
Nguyen fits perfectly into the “Fade the Contender Series Fighter Theory”, and while Errens isn't a great fighter as he's 0-2 in the UFC he lost to Gomis and Seung Woo Choi who are so much better than Nguyen.
Errens will get in Nguyen's face from the start, put forward pressure on, and I think at some point will get a takedown and do good work on the ground to get the win.
Miles Johns -122 v Cody Gibson +102
I'm a fan of Miles Johns, I've done well betting on him so I might be a big partial to him, but he had a gigantic red flag on him for this fight.
Johns has good power on the feet, and while he doesn't have the most amazing technique in wrestling and takedowns, he's very strong so he's a brute to take down and control, and his cardio is fantastic.
His last fight against Argueta was a lot of fun, and Johns had a lot of success on the feet and he got the victory, but Johns tested positive for steroids after the fight so this will be his first fight since then, and that is the big red flag.
It was a very tiny trace amount, so low that they don't even test for that anymore. Cody Gibson fought Brad Katona in his UFC debut, and it was an amazing fight with tons of excitement on the feet with tons of strikes, and Gibson ended up losing that fight, and taking a lot of damage, but he was tough and did well on offense as well.
I think Johns has too much power for Gibson, but betting against guys who are coming off a positive drug test has worked well in the past so I can't bet on Johns in this fight. It will be a pass for me.
Trey Ogden -148 v Kurt Holobaugh +124
Ogden got robbed of a win in his last fight as he was beating Motta, and was going for a submission when the ref stopped it early so it got ruled a no-contest despite Ogden dominating.
I think Ogden is better everywhere in this fight, and even though Holobaugh won his UFC debut against Austin Hubbard, I saw a lot of holes in his game, and his win was a bit fluky as he got the submission when Hubbard was on top.
He leaves himself open to getting taken down, and although he has good volume with his strikes, he leaves his head wide open, and I see Ogden taking advantage of all those weaknesses.
The counter punch will be wide open for Ogden, as will the takedown, and this price is pretty good. Ogden is the pick.
Fernando Padilla -175 v Luis Pajuelo +145
Pajuelo is coming off of a Contender Series win where his opponent was a grappler/ wrestler, but for some reason decided to try and strike with Pajuelo and Pajuelo knocked him out in round one.
Pajuelo seems to be a solid striker, but we haven't seen a whole lot from him so I don't think I can confidently say what I expect from him.
Padilla won his UFC debut but then suffered a loss against Kyle Nelson in his next fight, and Padilla had really good moments in that fight on the feet, but Nelson put on a savvy veteran performance where he weathered the early storm, and then stole rounds two and three, but I thought Padilla fought well, and I liked that he went three rounds against a UFC veteran and got some valuable cage time and experience (I thought Padilla won actually).
I like getting Padilla off a loss here, and I think his length and striking will be too much for Pajuelo. I like Padilla a lot here.